Fossil fuel phase-out is the proposed gradual global reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels to zero, to reduce air pollution, limit climate change, and strengthen energy independence. It is part of the ongoing renewable energy transition.
Many countries are shutting down coal-fired power stations, and some countries are building new ones, such that electrical energy generated by fossil fuel, and coal in particular, is still increasing as of 2024. Hence electricity generation is not moving off coal at all, and so will not meet climate goals. Many countries have set dates to stop selling petrol and diesel cars and trucks, but a timetable to stop burning fossil gas has not yet been agreed.
Current efforts in fossil fuel phase-out involve replacing fossil fuels with sustainable energy sources in sectors such as transport and heating. Alternatives to fossil fuels include electrification, green hydrogen and biofuel. Phase-out policies include both demand-side and supply-side measures. Whereas demand-side approaches seek to reduce fossil-fuel consumption, supply-side initiatives seek to constrain production to accelerate the pace of energy transition and reduction in emissions. It has been suggested that laws should be passed to make fossil fuel companies bury the same amount of carbon as they emit. The International Energy Agency estimates that in order to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century, global investments in renewable energy must triple by 2030, reaching over $4 trillion annually.
As of 2024, global use of fossil fuels is increasing, continuing the trend since 1965, if not earlier.
In April 2026, 57 nations met in Colombia for the first International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, intentionally excluding the United States and other major oil and gas producers. This diplomatic move follows a U.S. policy shift favoring fossil fuel energy over green initiatives and a lack of firm commitments at recent United Nations Climate Change Conferences.
Scope
While crude oil and natural gas are also being phased out in chemical processes (e.g. production of new building blocks for plastics) as the circular economy and biobased economy (e.g. bioplastics) are being developed to reduce plastic pollution, the fossil fuel phase out specifically aims to end the burning of fossil fuels and the consequent production of greenhouse gases. Therefore, attempts to reduce the use of oil and gas in the plastic industry do not form part of fossil fuel phase-out or reduction plans.
Types of fossil fuels
Coal
To meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming to well below , coal use needs to halve from 2020 to 2030. However, , coal supplied over a quarter of the world's primary energy and about 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Phasing out coal has short-term health and environmental benefits which exceed the costs, and without it the 2 °C target in the Paris Agreement cannot be met; but some countries still favour coal, and there is much disagreement about how quickly it should be phased out.
, 30 countries and many sub-national governments and businesses had become members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, each making a declaration to advance the transition away from unabated (abated means with carbon capture and storage (CCS), but almost all power plants are unabated as CCS is so expensive) coal power generation. , however, the countries which use the most coal have not joined, and some countries continue to build and finance new coal-fired power stations. A just transition from coal is supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
In 2019 the UN Secretary General said that countries should stop building new coal power plants from 2020 or face 'total disaster'.
In 2020, although China built some plants, globally more coal power was retired than built: the UN Secretary General has said that OECD countries should stop generating electricity from coal by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.
Oil
Crude oil is refined into fuel oil, diesel and petrol. The refined products are primarily for transportation by conventional cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships. Popular alternatives are human-powered transport, public transport, electric vehicles, and biofuels. The IISD has suggested a plan for oil and gas phase-out, but OPEC has called it a fantasy.
Oil phase-out is first related to a decrease in oil demand. But oil phase-out is also a question of which deposits to phase out first. Indeed, oil deposits vary in extraction costs and carbon intensity (due to flaring, methane venting, and oil- and reservoir-specific characteristics). For instance, the extraction and refining of oil produced in Venezuela or Canada is about twice as polluting in as the average oil barrel in Saudi Arabia. For any future Net-zero compatible demand pathways, oil phase-out can therefore be done by first phasing out high–carbon-intensity oil, saving gigatons of CO₂ in addition to emission reductions coming from the decrease in oil demand.
Natural gas
Natural gas is widely used to generate electricity and has an emission intensity of about 500 g/kWh. Heating is also a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Leaks are also a large source of atmospheric methane.
In some countries natural gas is being used as a temporary "bridge fuel" to replace coal, in turn to be replaced by renewable sources or a hydrogen economy. However this "bridge fuel" may significantly extend the use of fossil fuel or strand assets, such as gas-fired power plants built in the 2020s, as the average plant life is 35 years. Although natural gas assets are likely to be stranded later than oil and coal assets, perhaps not until 2050, some investors are concerned by reputational risk.
Fossil gas phase-out has progressed in some regions, for example with increasing use of hydrogen by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and changes to building regulations to reduce the use of gas heating. As residential consumers move to electricity, gas grid operation and maintenance may become harder to fund.
Reasons Commonly cited reasons for phasing out fossil fuels are to: reduce deaths and illness caused by air pollution limit climate change reduce fossil fuel subsidies strengthen energy independence – countries with low or no fossil fuel deposits often transition away from fossil fuels to gain energy independently
Health
Most of the millions of premature deaths from air pollution are due to fossil fuels. Pollution may be indoors e.g. from heating and cooking, or outdoors from vehicle exhaust. One estimate is that the proportion is 65% and the number 3.5 million each year. According to Professor Sir Andy Haines at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the health benefits of phasing out fossil fuels measured in money (estimated by economists using the value of life for each country) are substantially more than the cost of achieving the 2 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.
Climate change mitigation Fossil-fuel phase-out is the largest part of limiting global warming as fossil fuels account for over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2020, the International Energy Agency said that to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the phase-out of fossil fuels would need to "move four times faster". To achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, the vast majority of fossil fuel reserves owned by countries and companies as of 2021 would have to remain in the ground.
Employment
The renewable energy transition can create jobs through the construction of new power plants and the manufacturing of the equipment that they need, as was seen in the case of Germany and the wind power industry.
Energy independence
Countries which lack fossil fuel deposits, particularly coal but also petroleum and natural gas, often cite energy independence in their shift away from fossil fuels.
In Switzerland the decision to electrify virtually the entire railway network was taken in light of the two world wars (during which Switzerland was neutral) when coal imports became increasingly difficult. As Switzerland has ample hydropower resources, electric trains (as opposed to those driven by steam locomotives or diesel) could be run on domestic energy resources, reducing the need for coal imports.
The 1973 oil crisis also led to a shift in energy policy in many places to become (more) independent of fossil fuel imports. In France the government announced an ambitious plan to expand nuclear power which by the end of the 1980s had shifted France's electricity sector almost entirely away from coal gas and oil and towards nuclear power.
The trend towards encouraging cycling in the Netherlands and Denmark also coincided with the 1973 oil crisis and aimed in part at reducing the need for oil imports in the transportation sector.
Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies
Significant fossil fuel subsidies are present in many countries. Fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 for consumption totalled US$320 billion spread over many countries. governments subsidise fossil fuels by about $500 billion per year: however using an unconventional definition of subsidy which includes failing to price greenhouse gas emissions, the International Monetary Fund estimated that fossil fuel subsidies were $5.2 trillion in 2017, which was 6.4% of global GDP. Some fossil fuel companies lobby governments.
Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is crucial to address the climate crisis.[according to whom?] It must however be done carefully to avoid protests[according to whom?] and making poor people poorer. In most cases, however, low fossil fuel prices benefit wealthier households more than poorer households. So to help poor and vulnerable people, other measures than fossil fuel subsidies would be more targeted.[according to whom?] This could in turn increase public support for subsidy reform.
Economic theory indicates that the optimal policy would be to remove coal mining and burning subsidies and replace them with optimal taxes.[according to whom?] Global studies indicate that even without introducing taxes, subsidy and trade barrier removal at a sectoral level would improve efficiency and reduce environmental damage. Removal of these subsidies would substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create jobs in renewable energy. The IMF estimated in 2023 that removal of fossil fuel subsidies would limit global heating to the Paris goal of substantially less than 2 °C.
The actual effects of removing fossil fuel subsidies would depend heavily on the type of subsidy removed and the availability and economics of other energy sources. There is also the issue of carbon leakage, where removal of a subsidy to an energy-intensive industry could lead to a shift in production to another country with less regulation, and thus to a net increase in global emissions.
In developed countries, energy costs are low and heavily subsidised, whereas in developing countries, the poor pay high costs for low-quality services.
In 2009, studies have put forward a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, and solar power by the year 2030.Jacobson, M.Z. and Delucchi, M.A. (November 2009) "A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables" (originally published as "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030") Scientific American 301(5):58–65Jacobson, M.Z. (2009) "Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security" Energy and Environmental Science 2:148-73 (review) It recommends transfer of energy subsidies from fossil fuel to renewable, and a price on carbon reflecting its cost for flood, cyclone, hurricane, drought, and related extreme weather expenses.