The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.
Throughout history many states have worked to keep high birth rates in order to have moderate taxes, more economic activity and more troops for their military.
Population ageing is observed in most European countries today.
Trends
Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary Fund projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree). William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution think tank, predicted that the median age in Europe would increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 45.4 years old.
Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, the former European Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science, stated in 2014 that by 2020 a quarter of the population of Europe would be 60 years or older. This shift in demographics would drastically change the economic, labor market, health care, and social security of Europe.European Commission (2014). "Population Aging in Europe: Facts, Implications, and Policies.". Retrieved 1 May 2017.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work.
Austria's Social Affairs Minister said in 2006 that, by 2010, the 55- to 64-year-old age bracket in the European Union would be larger than the 15- to 24-year-old bracket. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU would decrease by 48 million, a 16% reduction, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, a gain of 77%.
In 2002, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030.
The feminisation of old age is reflected by an increasing number of females age 65 and older. The longer life span is prevalent amongst women across the world. In Europe the life expectancy for women is 81 years old, while men's life expectancy is only 74 years old, which gives 7 years' difference. Life expectancy at age 60 is four years longer for women in comparison to men. Projections show additional 24 years for females and 20 years for males in Europe.
Causes
Population ageing in Europe is caused primarily by three factors: declining fertility rates, increased life expectancy, and migration. The causes of population ageing vary among countries.
Fertility
The high number of people aged 60 and older in Europe is the result of high fertility rates which occurred 1950–1960. The period after the end of World War II was characterised by good social and economic status of the population in the child-bearing age and resulted in a "baby boom".
Current low fertility levels also contribute to the ageing of Europe. As the fertility levels drop, the age structure of the population changes, and the number of the younger groups decrease in relation to the older age groups. Europe's fertility rates have been less than the 2.1 children per woman (standard) replacement level and are projected to remain below the replacement level in the future.
Mortality People are living longer with projections of average life expectancy reaching 84.6 years for men and 89.1 for women by 2060, an increase of 7.9 years of life for men and 6.6 years of life for women compared to 2010. The longer life span results in the changing age structure in the population by increasing the numbers of people in the older age group. The average life expectancy of the older population will depend on the progress in medicine to prevent the diseases which are the leading causes of death. Among the top three causes of death are ischemic artery disease, stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Migration People immigrating and emigrating from the country will cause fluctuations, in particular, in the size of the working age group of the population. If there are high numbers of young immigrants coming to the country it will result in a decrease of the proportion of the ageing population. In the following countries immigration is projected to slow the population ageing: Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Austria and United Kingdom. Emigration would cause the opposite effect on population ageing by having people in the working age leaving the country, and accelerating the ageing of the population as a result. Increase of the ageing population caused by emigration is projected to occur in Latvia.
Effects
Populations in Europe react in different ways to demographic changes, depending on what is happening in their countries. Both ageing, emigration and immigration can cause anxiety in populations of individual countries. Demographic studies and resultant reports conducted by the European CommissionEurostat, Population Projections, European Commission, 2012 point to the declining birth rate of the population of the native European peoples, which would need to be reversed from its present level of about 1.4 in order to preclude a population decline of the native European peoples by nearly half in each generation, back to a replacement level of 2.1. Some have claimed that in order to compensate, it is necessary to allow migrants to settle in Europe in order to prevent labour shortages. It has been argued that such immigration leads to ethnic conflicts, such as the 2005 civil unrest in France.Steyn, Mark (2006) America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It Washington D.C., Regnery Publishing. On pages 10 and 54, birth rates among people of European ancestry populations in various nations are indicated that show all populations of European ancestry are reproducing at an average birth rate of only about 1.4, almost half the replacement rate of 2.1, and thus their population has a negative (declining) growth rate that will decline by almost half every generation."Childless Europe: What Happens to a Continent When it Stops Making Babies?" New York Times Magazine Sunday, 29 June 2008Himmelfarb, Milton, and Victor Baras (eds). 1978. Zero Population Growth-For Whom?: differential fertility and minority group survival. Westport, CT: Praeger; Leuprecht, C. 2011. "'Deter or Engage?:Demographic Determinants of Bargains in Ethno-Nationalist Conflicts'." in Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions ed. J. A. Goldstone, E. Kaufmann and M. Toft. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press
The ageing population in Europe had multiple consequences on the changes in the political and economic narratives and discourses.
As the proportion of individuals in the workforce declines relative to those relying on welfare systems (i.e., as the dependency ratio rises), significant financial challenges emerge.Lodge, M. and Hood, C. (2011) Into an age of multiple austerities?: public management and public service bargains across OECD countries. Governance, 25 (1). pp. 79-101. ISSN 0952-1895 DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0491.2011.01557.x Policymakers often frame the ageing population as an economic threat. For instance, the World Bank’s 1994 report, Averting the Old Age Crisis, critically examined the role of pension systems in fostering economic growth. Similarly, the European Commission, starting in 1997, began recommending reforms to pension schemes, and by 2001, the European Council officially recognized ageing as a critical policy issue for the European Union. Numerous articles and reports underscore a tone of concern regarding the growing ageing population and its associated costs, particularly rising expenditures on pensions, healthcare, and social care. This narrative is echoed in academic literature. For instance, Gruber and WiseGruber, J. and Wise, D. (2001). An international perspective on policies for an aging society, National Bureau of Economic Research, 8103, DOI: 10.3386/w8103. observed that between 1980 and 1995, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above in OECD countries rose by 20%, while expenditure on this demographic increased by 25%.
However, TimonenTimonen, V. (2008). Ageing Societies: A Comparative Introduction. Open University Press. argues that ageing matters less than what is expressed, highlighting several reasons why its impact may be less severe than commonly portrayed. One key argument is that older individuals contribute to the economy and society in various meaningful ways. For instance, many older adults continue to engage in paid work, and post-retirement employment is an increasingly prevalent trend across Europe, especially so in the north part of Europe. Additionally, older individuals play a crucial role in family dynamics through grandparenting, which enables their children or other relatives to participate in the workforce without the added responsibility of childcare. Beyond this, they often provide care for spouses or other adult family members and are active in voluntary work. Furthermore, older adults frequently participate in the intergenerational redistribution of material resources, offering financial support to younger family members.Strauss, S. & Trommer, K. (2018). Productive Ageing Regimes in Europe: Welfare State Typologies Explaining Elderly Europeans’ Participation in Paid and Unpaid Work. Population Ageing, 311–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-017-9184-4
The political preferences of ageing population It is first important to highlight that the older population is not a homogeneous group with uniform interests or characteristics before exploring their general political preferences. While they often share distinct traits compared to younger generations, significant diversity exists within this age group. Variations in health, income, education, cultural backgrounds, and life experiences mean that older individuals often have differing needs, preferences, and priorities.