2008 Bavarian state election

The 2008 Bavarian state election was held on 28 September 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Bavaria. The result was a historic defeat for the Christian Social Union (CSU), which had governed with a majority uninterrupted since 1962, and had won over 60% of the vote in the 2003 election. Despite polling suggesting that the party would retain its majority with losses, it suffered a 17% swing and came up two seats short of a majority, its worst result since 1954. Minister-President and CSU leader Günther Beckstein subsequently resigned from both posts, and the Landtag elected Horst Seehofer as his successor after the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to a coalition agreement.

The Free Voters of Bavaria entered the Landtag for the first time with 10% of the vote; the FDP also won seats for the first time in 14 years. The Left competed in its first Bavarian election, recording a modest result of 4.3%, but failing to win any seats.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Bavaria. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2003 result Votes (%) Seats CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christian democracy Günther Beckstein 60.7% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Franz Maget 19.6% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Sepp Daxenberger 7.7%

Opinion polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CSU SPD Grüne FW FDP Linke ÖDP Others Lead 2008 state election 28 Sep 2008 – 43.4 18.6 9.4 10.2 8.0 4.3 2.0 4.1 24.8 GMS 20–21 Sep 2008 1,010 48 19 10 7 7 4 1 4 29 Emnid 10–18 Sep 2008 1,010 49 20 8 7 8 5 – 3 29 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16–18 Sep 2008 1,105 47 20 8 8 9 4 – 4 27 Infratest dimap 15–17 Sep 2008 1,000 47 21 9 7 8 4 – 4 26 Forsa 8–12 Sep 2008 1,101 50 19 9 8 6 4 – 4 31 GMS 6–8 Sep 2008 1,006 49 19 11 5 7 4 2 3 30 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28–30 Jul 2008 1,038 50 20 9 7 6 4 – 4 30 Infratest dimap 24–28 Jul 2008 1,000 48 22 9 5 8 4 – 4 26 Emnid 23 Jun–17 Jul 2008 ~500 51 19 9 – 7 5 – 9 32 TNS Infratest 3–8 Jul 2008 1,000 48 21 11 5 8 4 – 3 27 GMS 8–9 Jul 2008 1,006 50 20 8 4 5 5 2 6 30 GMS 2–6 Jun 2008 1,009 49 20 9 5 5 5 2 5 29 Infratest dimap 28–30 Apr 2008 1,000 48 23 10 5 6 4 – 4 25 mifm München 21–23 Apr 2008 1,000 44 20 11 9 9 3 – 4 24 mifm München 4–14 Apr 2008 1,001 40 19 12 11 11 4 – 3 21 GMS 8–14 Apr 2008 1,010 51 20 10 4 6 4 1 4 31 GMS 31 Mar–6 Apr 2008 1,512 50 21 10 4 5 4 – 6 29 Emnid 13–27 Feb 2008 ~500 51 19 11 3 6 4 – 6 32 mifm München 31 Jan–7 Feb 2008 1,000 50 20 11 4 7 3 – 5 30 Infratest dimap 3–7 Jan 2008 1,000 52 21 10 2 6 3 – 6 31 Emnid 10 Dec 2007–2 Jan 2008 800 54 20 10 – 6 4 – 6 34 GMS 2–3 Jan 2008 1,004 56 21 9 3 4 3 1 3 34 GMS 12–17 Dec 2007 1,010 55 20 9 4 5 3 – 4 35 Forsa 5–27 Nov 2007 1,002 56 17 9 3 4 4 – 7 39 mifm München 29 Oct–7 Nov 2007 1,000 53.8 19.1 9.9 1.7 7 3.2 – 5.3 34.7 GMS 21–22 Oct 2007 1,001 54 23 10 3 4 3 1 2 31 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–26 Sep 2007 1,143 56 22 9 4 4 3 – 2 34 mifm München 7–15 Sep 2007 1,003 53 17 10 3 7 3 1.7 4.9 36 Forsa 29 Aug–17 Sep 2007 1,003 57 19 9 2 4 3 – 6 38 Forsa 28–30 Jul 2007 1,002 58 17 9 3 4 3 – 6 41 TNS Infratest 17–19 Jul 2007 1,000 54 22 11 – 5 3 – 5 32 dimap 13–19 Jul 2007 1,000 58 18 11 – 4 4 – 5 40 GMS 13–18 Jun 2007 1,010 54 18 9 4 8 3 – 4 36 Forsa 4–14 Jun 2007 1,001 56 16 9 3 6 3 – 7 40 Forsa 25 Apr–8 May 2007 1,036 56 17 9 3 6 3 – 6 39 Forsa 19 Mar–2 Apr 2007 1,012 54 20 9 3 4 3 – 7 34 Infratest dimap 22–25 Mar 2007 1,002 53 23 10 2 6 2 – 4 30 GMS 5–8 Mar 2007 1,012 53 20 9 4 7 2 1 4 33 Forsa 15–26 Feb 2007 1,002 53 19 9 3 6 3 – 7 34 GMS 22–25 Jan 2007 1,011 52 22 9 4 7 2 2 2 30 Infratest dimap 19–20 Jan 2007 1,000 52 24 9 – 7 – – 8 28 Infratest dimap 15 Jan 2007 1,000 50 24 11 – 8 – – 7 26 Forsa 10–12 Jan 2007 1,007 49 22 9 3 6 4 – 7 27 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 12–13 Jan 2007 1,142 45 27 10 – 9 – – 9 18 Infratest dimap 3–4 Jan 2007 1,000 54 22 9 – 7 – – 8 32 Forsa 27–29 Dec 2006 1,009 54 18 9 3 5 4 – 7 36 GMS 18–23 Dec 2006 1,006 54 20 10 2 8 2 2 2 34 Forsa 24 Nov–5 Dec 2006 1,026 56 17 10 2 5 4 – 6 39 Forsa 23 Oct–7 Nov 2006 1,004 54 19 9 2 7 3 – 6 35 GMS 6–8 Oct 2006 1,002 53 22 8 3 8 3 1 2 31 Forsa 18 Sep–4 Oct 2006 1,006 54 18 9 2 8 3 – 6 36 Infratest dimap 28 Sep–1 Oct 2006 1,000 49 24 10 2 8 1 – 6 25 Forsa 20 Aug–5 Sep 2006 1,005 58 16 10 – 6 3 – 7 42 Forsa 3–12 Jul 2006 1,004 56 16 10 3 6 4 – 5 40 GMS 9–14 Jun 2006 1,002 54 18 11 2.0 8 2.5 – 4.5 36 Forsa 12–17 May 2006 1,002 52 18 9 3 10 3 – 5 34 Emnid 20 Apr–9 May 2006 1,000 53 23 9 – 5 – – 10 30 Forsa 22–24 Feb 2006 1,003 52 21 9 4 6 3 – 5 31 Infratest dimap 12–15 Jan 2006 1,000 53 22 10 2 7 2 – 4 31 Forsa 4–11 Jan 2006 1,114 49 24 10 – 6 3 – 8 25 Peinelt 17 Nov–9 Dec 2005 1,067 45.9 21.5 8.6 4.2 11.8 – – 8.0 24.4 GMS 17–21 Dec 2005 1,001 56 22 7 4 4 2 1 4 34 Infratest dimap 15–16 Nov 2005 1,000 45 24 10 – 11 3 – 7 21 Forsa 4–7 Nov 2005 1,001 49 21 9 – 9 4 – 8 28 Infratest dimap 21–24 Jul 2005 1,000 59 18 9 – 4 4 – 6 41 Infratest dimap 5–9 Jan 2005 1,000 56 22 10 – 5 – – 7 34 Infratest dimap 21–25 Jul 2004 1,000 58 17 12 – 5 – – 8 41 GMS 17–20 Mar 2004 1,009 61.0 19.0 10.0 1.5 3.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 42 Infratest dimap 2–5 Jan 2004 1,000 62 19 9 – 3 – – 7 43 2003 state election 21 Sep 2003 – 60.7 19.6 7.7 4.0 2.6 – 2.0 3.4 41.1

Election result

2008 Bavarian state election

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