Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being TVNZ, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Individual polls PollDateLabourNationalNZ FirstMāoriGreenACTUnited FutureProg 2005 election result 17 September 2005 41.1 39.1 5.7 2.1 5.3 1.5 2.7 1.2Roy Morgan Research17 September–2 October 2005 36.5 41.5 4.5 3 9 1.5 3 1Roy Morgan Research4–16 October 2005 39 40.5 5 2 7 1.5 3.5 1Roy Morgan Research18–31 October 2005 37.5 40 6 1 9 1 3.5 0.53 News TNS 27 October–2 November 2005 44 37 3.5 2.5 7 1.5 2.5 0.7One News Colmar Brunton 20 November 2005 40 44 4 2 7 1 1 Herald-DigiPoll 30 November 2005Dates surveyed unavailable: date shown is date polled released to media. 43.8 41.7 3.8 1.5 5.3 1.5 1.3 One News Colmar Brunton 11 December 2005 37 46 4 2.1 7 Roy Morgan International 13–23 January 2006 39 40.5 4.5 1.5 8.5 1.5 3.0 0.0Sunday Star-Times/BRC 16–25 January 2006 42 43 4 1 6 1 1 3 News TNS 26 January–2 February 2006 44 38 3.4 1.7 7 1.2 1.5 0.5One News Colmar Brunton 19 February 2006 42 45 4 2 6 1 1 3 News TNS 23–29 March 2006 43 40 4.3 3 6 1.1 1.9 0.2Herald-DigiPoll 10 April 2006 43.4 44.6 3.9 2.1 5.2 1.1 1.5 3 News TNS 4–10 May 2006 42 41 3.8 2.2 6 1.8 1.9 0.218 May 2006 2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.One News Colmar Brunton 22–25 May 2006 38 47 4 3 5 1.1 1.4 0.13 News TNS 29 June–5 July 2006 46 39 3.8 1.3 6 0.8 1.1 0.4One News Colmar Brunton 16 July 2006 43 45 2 2 4 2 0.8 One News Colmar Brunton 7–10 August 2006 43 45 3 2.6 3 0.9 1.5 0.4Herald-DigiPoll 31 August 2006Dates surveyed unavailable: date shown is date polled released to media. 38.7 46.4 2.8 3.4 5.8 0.7 1.1 0.23 News TNS 24–30 August 2006 43 40 3.2 2.8 7 1 1.2 0.2Roy Morgan Research 28 August–10 September 2006 41 38 5.5 3 8.5 1.5 2 0.5 13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair.PollDateLabourNationalNZ FirstMāoriGreenACTUnited FutureProgHerald-DigiPoll 22–24 September 2006 38 45.7 2.8 4.1 6.8 1.4 0.7 0.3One News Colmar Brunton 18–21 September 2006 38 49 – 3 6 – – –Roy Morgan Research 16 September–1 October 2006 36 41.5 7 2.5 8.5 1.5 2.5 –Roy Morgan Research 2–15 October 2006 40 40 5 1.5 8.5 2 1.5 0.5One News Colmar Brunton 16–19 October 2006 36 49 2.5 2.4 6 0.5 0.9 0.2Roy Morgan Research 16–29 October 2006 38.5 41 3 2.5 8 1.5 3 –3 News TNS 26 October–1 November 2006 42 40 2.4 3.4 7 1.5 1.9 0.2Roy Morgan Research 30 October–12 November 2006 38.5 42.5 5 2.5 7.5 0.5 1.5 0.5Roy Morgan Research 13–26 November 2006 37.5 42.5 4.5 2 8 1.5 3 –27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party. Herald-DigiPoll 14 November–2 December 2006 41.7 42.8 3.4 2 6.1 1 1.6 0.4Roy Morgan Research 27 November–12 December 2006 37.5 44.5 4 1 9.5 0.5 2 0.5Roy Morgan Research 3–21 January 2007 41 41 4 2 7.5 1.5 1 0.53 News TNS 25 January–1 February 2007 44 41 2.8 2 8 0.8 0.8 0.1Roy Morgan Research 23 January–5 February 2007 39.5 41.5 4 2 8 1.5 2.5 0.513 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent.PollDateLabourNationalNZ FirstMāoriGreenACTUnited FutureProgOne News Colmar BruntonOne News, 19 February 2007, ONE News report, Party source, Preferred Prime Minister 12–15 February 2007 39 46 2.2 3.1 7 1.3 0.5 0.4Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 27 February 2007 Source 6–18 February 2007 36 48.5 3 1.5 8.5 1 1.5 – Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 14 March 2007 Source 19 February–4 March 2007 36 45 2 3.5 8.5 2.5 1.5 0.5Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 24 March 2007 Source 5–18 March 2007 37.5 45 4 3.5 7.5 1 1.5 –One News Colmar BruntonOne News, 25 March 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister 17–22 March 2007 37 46 2 3.4 7 1.5 1.6 0.13 News TNSScoop.co.nz, 1 April 2007,   22–28 March 2007 44 42 1.2 3.4 5.6 1.2 0.7 0.2Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 13 April 2007, Source 19 March–2 April 2007 35.5 46 3.5 2.5 9.5 1 1 –Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 24 April 2007, Source 3–16 April 2007 33.5 45.5 6 2 8.5 1 2 –One News Colmar BruntonOne News, 22 April 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister 14–19 April 2007 39 49 2 1.7 6 1 0.6 0.2Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 15 May 2007 Source 23 April–6 May 2007 36 49.5 4.5 1.5 6 0.5 1.5 – 3 News TNSTV3, 13 May 2007,   3–9 May 2007 36 48 2.4 3.7 8 0.5 0.6 0.116 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007.17 May 2007 2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 25 May 2007 Source 7–20 May 2007 32 49 4.5 2.5 7 1.5 1.5 –Herald-DigiPollThe New Zealand Herald, 26 May 2007 Source 18–24 May 2007 33.6 50.9 3.2 1.7 6.1 0.7 0.8 0.4One News Colmar BruntonOne News, 27 May 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred PM 19–24 May 2007 31 56 2.1 2.9 6 0.4 1 0.2Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 15 June 2007 Source 21 May–3 June 2007 33.5 50.5 3.5 1.5 6.5 0.5 2 0.5 7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency.PollDateLabourNationalNZ FirstMāoriGreenACTUnited FutureProgRoy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 27 June 2007 Source 4–17 June 2007 36 49.5 3 1.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.5Herald-DigiPollThe New Zealand Herald, 25 June 2007 Source 4–22 June 2007 40.1 48.2 3 2.4 4 0.6 0.3 –Roy Morgan ResearchRoy Morgan Research, 11 July 2007 Source 18 June–1 July 2007 34 48.5 2.5 2 8.5 1 1.5 11 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4-year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme.One News Colmar BruntonOne News, 8 July 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister 30 June–5 July 2007 36 52 2.3 2.6 5 0.3 0.6 0.43 News TNSTV3, 15 July 2007   5–11 July 2007 36 48 2.6 2.7 6 1.2 1.1 –