Semiannually, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) publishes an unclassified "Summary of the Reengagement of Detainees Formerly Held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba" (Reengagement Report). According to ODNI's most recent Reengagement Report, since 2009, when current rules and processes governing transfer of detainees out of Guantanamo were put in place, ODNI assess that 5.1% of detainees – 10 men total, 2 of whom are deceased – are more likely than not to have reengaged in terrorist activities.
Background The Guantanamo Bay detention camp (Spanish: Centro de detención de Guantánamo) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, also referred to as Guantánamo, GTMO, and "Gitmo" (/ˈɡɪtmoʊ/), on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. Of the 780 people detained there since January 2002 when the military prison first opened after the September 11, 2001 attacks, 731 have been transferred elsewhere, 39 remain there, and 9 have died while in custody.
Once every six months, the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) – in consultation with the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Secretary of Defense – is required to make public an unclassified "Summary of the Reengagement of Detainees Formerly Held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba" (Reengagement Report). ODNI's Reengagement Reports break down all transfers from Guantanamo by Presidential administration under which they occurred, and categorize them according to whether ODNI assesses a former detainee to be "confirmed" or "suspected" of "reengaging" in "terrorist activities" (as those terms are defined in the reports).
The standard for inclusion in the "confirmed" category is "a preponderance of information which identifies a specific former Guantanamo detainee as directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities." In other words, ODNI considers reengagement "confirmed" if it is more likely than not – i.e., there is at least a 51% chance – that a former detainee is directly involved in terrorist activities. For inclusion in the "suspected" category, ODNI need only find that there is "[p]lausible but unverified or single-source reporting indicating a specific former GTMO detainee is directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities."
DNI's most recent Reengagement Report was declassified in December 2020 and made public on April 5, 2021. As of this report, 729 detainees had been transferred out of Guantanamo since the prison opened in 2002. According to ODNI, 125 of them were "confirmed of reengaging" (14.3%) and 104 "suspected of reengaging" (17.1%). However, the vast majority of those transfers (115 of them) occurred pre-2009, before current rules and processes governing transfers were put in place. After 2009—when transfers have been subject to the rules and processes that remain in place today—the reengagement rates have dropped significantly, to 5.1% ("confirmed of reengaging") and 10.2% (suspected of reengaging"), respectively. The 5.1% statistic represents 10 men total, 2 of whom are deceased.
History
As early as 2004, the US government claimed that detainees released from Guantanamo Bay detainment camp had returned to the battlefield. Initially, government spokesmen claimed relatively small numbers of former Guantanamo captives had returned to the battlefield. In a press briefing on March 6, 2007, a "Senior Defense official" commented:
I can tell you that we have confirmed 12 individuals have returned to the fight, and we have strong evidence that about another dozen have returned to the fight.
On Monday, May 14, 2007, Pentagon officials Joseph Benkert and Jeffrey Gordon repeated the assertion that thirty former captives had returned to the battlefield in testimony before the United States Congress. They identified six of the thirty by name. They offered the names of the three men previously identified: "Mullah Shahzada"; "Maulavi Abdul Ghaffar"; and Abdullah Mahsud. They tied "Mullah Shahzada" to Mohamed Yusif Yaqub, a Guantanamo captive who was listed on the official list. , US Department of Defense, May 15, 2006 The other three names they offered were: Mohammed Ismail; Abdul Rahman Noor; and Mohammed Nayim Farouq.
On July 12, 2007, the Department of Defense placed an additional page on their site, entitled: "Former Guantanamo Detainees who have returned to the fight". This list contained one additional name, not on the list released on May 14, 2007, for a total of seven names. The new name was Ruslan Odizhev, a Russian who Russian police reported died while resisting arrest on June 27, 2007.
On 13 January 2009, the Pentagon said that 18 former detainees are confirmed to have participated in attacks, and 43 are suspected to have been involved in attacks. A spokesman said evidence of someone being "confirmed" could include fingerprints, a conclusive photograph or "well-corroborated intelligence reporting." He said the Pentagon would not discuss how the statistics were derived because of security concerns. National security expert and CNN analyst Peter Bergen, stated that some of those "suspected" to have returned to terrorism are so categorized because they publicly made anti-American statements, "something that's not surprising if you've been locked up in a U.S. prison camp for several years." If all on the "confirmed" list have indeed returned to the battlefield, that would amount to 4 percent of the detainees who have been released at that time.Security experts skeptical on Gitmo detainee report CNN January 24, 2009
According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, through December 2020, 14.5% of detainees transferred since 2002 are "confirmed of reengaging" in terrorist activities and 17.1% "suspected of reengaging" (see background section above for definitions of these terms and additional explanation). Since 2009—when current rules and processes governing transfers were implemented—the reengagement rates assessed by ODNI have dropped significantly, to 5.1% ("confirmed of reengaging") and 10.2% (suspected of reengaging"), respectively. The 5.1% statistic represents 10 men total, 2 of whom are deceased.
Lists of alleged returnees
2006 list
92 Abdullah Mahsud 363 Maulvi Abdul Ghaffar 367 Mohamed Yusif Yaqub 582 Abdul Rahman Noor 633 Mohammed Nayim Farouq 930 Mohammed Ismail
2007 list
reportedisn name In July 2007Press Release Disposition Citizenship Country ofAct 92 Said Mohammed Alim Shah Yes Killed Afghanistan Afghanistan 203 Ravil Shafeyavich Gumarov No Arrest Russia Russia 69 Ruslan Anatolivich Odijev Yes Arrest Russia Russia 220 Abdallah Saleh Ali Al Ajmi No Killed Kuwait Iraq 294 Mohammed Mizouz No Arrest Morocco Morocco 297 Ibrahim Shafir Sen No Arrest Turkey Turkey 363 Shai Jahn Ghafoor Yes Killed Afghanistan Afghanistan 587Mohammed Yusif Yaqub's ISN is really 367. Mohammed Yusif Yaqub Yes Killed Afghanistan Afghanistan 587 Ibrahim Bin Shakaran No Arrest Morocco Morocco 633 Mohammed Nayim Farouq Yes At Large Afghanistan Afghanistan 674 Timur Ravilich Ishmurat No Arrest Russia Russia 930 Mohammed Ismail Yes Capture Afghanistan Afghanistan
2008 list + Names of Guantanamo captives who are alleged to have returned to the battlefield ID Name Notes 363 Maulvi Abdul Ghaffar AKA Shai Jahn Ghafoor Had been a senior Taliban military leader prior to capture. Captured in Afghanistan in December 2001, was one of the twenty-three prisoners released from Camp Delta in late January 2004. After his release, he joined the remnants of the Taliban and was killed in a gunfight on September 26, 2004.Gitmo Detainees Return To Terror, CBS News, October 17, 2004Released Detainees Join Fight , LA Times, October 22, 2004 The official list of Guantanamo captives included two men with the same name, who remained in custody years after Maulvi Abdul Ghaffar had been reported to have been released, and killed in combat. 92 Abdullah Mehsud Reportedly captured in Afghanistan in December 2001 after surrendering to Abdul Rashid Dostum. That he was ever been captured, and sent to Guantanamo has been challenged. Allegedly masterminded the kidnapping of two Chinese engineers in Pakistan's South Waziristan region. Allegedly returning to his position as an Al-Qaeda field commander. One of the Chinese engineers died during a rescue mission, the other was rescued. Mehsud also claimed responsibility for the bombing at Islamabad's Marriott Hotel in October 2004. The blast injured seven people, including a U.S. diplomat, two Italians and the Pakistani prime minister's chief security officer. Mehsud was subsequently reported to have been killed in combat. 203 Ravil Shafeyavich Gumarov Reported to have had military training in Chechnya. Convicted of bombing a natural gas pipeline on May 9, 2006. Sentenced to 13 years. 211 Ruslan Anatolivich Odijev Repatriated to Russian custody, cleared, then released. 294 Mohammed Bin Ahmad Mizouz One of the first 200 captives to be repatriated. Reported seeing guards urinate on the Koran. Reported being tortured while in US custody, reported that all the techniques used in Abu Ghraib were first used on captives like him in Bagram. Convicted in September 2007 of recruiting fighters to send to Iraq. 297 Ibrahim Shafir Sen Sued Donald Rumsfeld upon his release. Ibrahim Shafir Sen was transferred to Turkey in November 2003. In January 2008, Sen was arrested in Van, Turkey, and charged as the leader of an active al-Qaida cell. 367 Mohammed Yusif YaqubakaMullah Shahzada Reports of the release, return to the battlefield, and subsequent death in combat of Mullah Shahzada, while reported in the press, is always attributed to unnamed insiders.Tim McGirk, Rahimullah Yusufza, , Time (magazine), June 7, 2004Shaun Waterman, Freed Gitmo detainees back in rebel ranks, officials say , Washington Times, June 7, 2004Kyrgyzstan daily digest , Eurasia.net, March 21, 2001Carlotta Gall, In Pakistan Border Towns, Taliban Has a Resurgence, New York Times, May 6, 2003 - - mirror Tim Golden, Don van Natta jr., U.S. Said to Overstate Value of Guantánamo Detainees , New York Times, June 21, 2004 - - mirror Oliver North, Unilateral self-flagellation , Town hall, June 10, 2005Clash leaves 9 police dead in South Afghanistan , People's Daily, October 22, 2005 The official list of Guantanamo captives included a man the same name, Haji Shahzada who remained in custody years after the stories that Mullah Shahzada had been reported to have been released, and killed in combat. Haji Shahzada was one of the 38 captives whose Combatant Status Review Tribunal determined they had not been an enemy combatant in the first place. On Monday, May 14, 2007, Pentagon officials, for the first time, tied the reports that "Mullah Shahzada" had returned to the battlefield to the name of one of the captives on the official list of Guantanamo captives, Mohammed Yusif Yaqub. According to Reuters summary of their testimony: {|"Released May 8, 2003, he assumed control of Taliban operations in Southern Afghanistan and died fighting U.S. forces on May 7, 2004." |- | 587 || Ibrahim Bin Shakaran || The Defense Intelligence Agency asserted Ibrahim Bin Shakaran had "returned to terrorism". The DIA reported: In September 2007 he was convicted in a Moroccan court for recruiting fighters for Al Qaida in Iraq in 2005. Allegedly he was working to create an al Qaida in the Lands of the Maghreb. Allegedly he was coordinating "sleeper cells" to go for training and return to Morocco. |- | 930 || Mohammed Ismail || First identified as a former captive who had returned to the battlefield in Testimony before Congress on Monday May 14, 2007. According to Reuters summary of their testimony: {| |"Released from Guantanamo in early 2004, he was recaptured four months later in May while participating in an attack on U.S. forces near Kandahar. When captured, Ismail carried a letter confirming his status as a Taliban member in good standing."
| 582 || Abdul Rahman Noor ||