2011 National Assembly for Wales election

An election for the National Assembly for Wales was held on 5 May 2011 and to elect the Assembly Members (AMs). It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales (previous elections having been held in 1999, 2003 and 2007), and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 5

The election resulted in gains for the incumbent Welsh Labour, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and now had 30 seats, exactly half of the assembly. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives emerged as the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two, but party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day were entitled to vote. The deadline to register to vote in the election was midnight on 14 April 2011, though anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on 26 April 2011 to register.The deadline for the receipt and determination of anonymous electoral registration applications was the same as the publication date of the notice of alteration to the Electoral Register (i.e. the fifth working day before election day).

It was held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly elections, a number of local elections in England, and the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.

Electoral method In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in the so called additional member system for mixed-member proportional representation. The first vote is used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the 'first past the post' system. The second vote is used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation of the regional seats. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Results Overall turnout: 42.2%

| || Total || 949,252 || || || 40 || || 949,388 || || || 20 || || 60 || ||

(source:)

Votes summary

Opinion polls

Constituency vote (FPTP)

Date(s)conducted Polling organisation/clientLab Cons Plaid Lib Dem Others Lead5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly election results, 2011 42.3% 25.0% 19.3% 10.6% 2.8% 17.3%4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 47% 20% 18% 9% 6% 27%2 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 45% 21% 18% 8% 7% 24%14 April 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 49% 20% 17% 8% 6% 29%7 April 2011 rmg:Clarity/Western Mail 51% 20% 17% 8% 5% 31%30 March 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 47% 21% 17% 8% 6% 26%8 March 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 48% 20% 19% 7% 7% 28%26 January 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 45% 21% 21% 7% 6% 24%22 December 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 44% 23% 21% 6% 6% 21%24 November 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 44% 21% 21% 9% 6% 23%27 November 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 44% 19% 21% 9% 8% 23%3 May 2007 2007 National Assembly for Wales election 32.2% 22.4% 22.4% 14.8% 8.2% 9.8%

Regional vote (AMS)

Date(s)conducted Polling organisation/clientLab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly election results, 2011 (regional) 36.9% 22.5% 17.9% 8.0% 4.6% 3.4% 6.7% 14.4%14 April 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 44% 20% 18% 8% 4% 2% 4% 24%30 March 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 45% 20% 16% 8% 6% 2% 2% 25%8 March 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 45% 20% 18% 5% 5% 4% 2% 25%26 January 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 41% 20% 21% 8% 4% 2% 4% 20%22 December 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 42% 22% 21% 5% 5% 3% 2% 20%24 November 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 41% 20% 20% 9% 4% 3% 4% 21%27 October 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 40% 18% 23% 9% 6% 2% 3% 17%27 October 2010 YouGov/ITV Wales 40% 18% 23% 9% 6% 2% 3% 17%3 May 2007 National Assembly for Wales election, 2007 (regional) 29.6% 21.4% 21.0% 11.7% 4.0% 3.5% 8.8% 8.2%

Constituency and regional summary Constituency nominations NB: candidates in bold text were the incumbent assembly members. Non-incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected in 2011 are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Others Result Aberavon TJ Morgan David Rees Helen Ceri Clarke Paul Nicholls Jones Labour hold Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Eifion Wyn Williams Mike Priestley Iwan Huws Conservative gain Alyn and Deeside John Bell Carl Sargeant Peter Williams Shane Brennan Mike Whitby (British National Party) Labour hold Arfon Aled Davies Christina Rees Rhys Jones Alun Ffred Jones Plaid Cymru hold Blaenau Gwent Bob Haywood Alun Davies Martin Blakebrough Darren Jones Jayne Sullivan (Independent)Brian Urch (British National Party) Labour gain Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies Chris Lloyd Kirsty Williams Gary Price LD hold Bridgend Alex Williams Carwyn Jones Briony Davies Tim Thomas Labour hold Caerphilly Owen Meredith Jeff Cuthbert Kay David Ron Davies Anthony King (British National Party) Labour hold Cardiff Central Matt Smith Jenny Rathbone Nigel Howells Chris Williams Mathab Khan (Independent) Labour gain Cardiff North Jonathan Morgan Julie Morgan Matt Smith Ben Foday Labour gain Cardiff South and Penarth Ben Gray Vaughan Gething Sian Anne Cliff Liz Musa Labour hold Cardiff West Craig Williams Mark Drakeford David Morgan Neil McEvoy Labour hold Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Henrietta Hensher Antony Jones Will Griffiths Rhodri Glyn Thomas Plaid Cymru hold Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns Christine Gwyther Selwyn Runnett Nerys Evans Conservative hold Ceredigion Luke Evetts Richard Boudier Elizabeth Evans Elin Jones Chris Simpson (Welsh Green Party) Plaid Cymru hold Clwyd South Paul Rogers Ken Skates Bruce Roberts Mabon ap Gwynfor Labour hold Clwyd West Darren Millar Crispin Jones Brian Cossey Eifion Lloyd Jones Conservative hold Cynon Valley Daniel Saxton Christine Chapman Ian Walton Dafydd Trystan Davies Labour hold Delyn Matthew Wright Sandy Mewies Michele Jones Carrie Harper Labour hold Dwyfor Meirionnydd Simon Baynes Martyn Singleton Steve Churchman Lord Elis-Thomas Louise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd) Plaid Cymru hold Gower Caroline Jones Edwina Hart Peter May Darren Price Labour hold Islwyn David Chipp Gwyn Price Tom Sullivan Steffan Lewis Peter Whalley (British National Party) Labour hold Llanelli Andrew Morgan Keith Davies Cheryl Philpott Helen Mary Jones Sian Caiach (Putting Llanelli First) Labour gain Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Chris O'Brien Huw Lewis Amy Kitcher Noel Turner Tony Rogers (Independent) Labour hold Monmouth Nick Ramsay Mark Whitcutt Janet Ellard Fiona Cross Steve Uncles (English Democrats) Conservative hold Montgomeryshire Russell George Nick Colbourne Wyn Williams David Senior Conservative gain Neath Alex Powell Gwenda Thomas Matthew McCarthy Alun Llewellyn Mike Green (British National Party) Labour hold Newport East Nick Webb John Griffiths Ed Townsend Chris Paul Labour hold Newport West David Williams Rosemary Butler Elizabeth Newton Lyndon Binding Labour hold Ogmore Martyn Hughes Janice Gregory Gerald Francis Danny Clark Labour hold Pontypridd Joel James Mick Antoniw Mike Powell Ioan Bellin Ken Owen (Independent) Labour hold Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Terry Mills Bob Kilmister Rhys Sinnett Conservative hold Rhondda James Eric Jefferys Leighton Andrews George Summers Sera Evans-Fear Labour hold Swansea East Dan Boucher Michael Hedges Sam Samuel Dic Jones Joanne Shannon (British National Party) Labour hold Swansea West Stephen Jenkins Julie James Rob Speht Carl Harris Labour hold Torfaen Natasha Asghar Lynne Neagle Will Griffiths Jeff Rees Susan Harwood (British National Party) Elizabeth Haynes (Independent) Labour hold Vale of Clwyd Ian Gunning Ann Jones Heather Prydderch Alun Lloyd Jones Labour hold Vale of Glamorgan Angela Jones-Evans Jane Hutt Damian Chick Ian Johnson Labour hold Wrexham John Marek Lesley Griffiths Bill Brereton Marc Jones Labour hold Ynys Môn Paul Williams Joe Lock Rhys Taylor Ieuan Wyn Jones Plaid Cymru hold

Regional lists

Mid and West Wales

North Wales

South Wales Central

South Wales East

South Wales West

Target seats for the main parties Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

Labour targets RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLabour's place 2007Result1Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 0.172ndConservative hold2Clwyd West 3.052ndConservative hold3Preseli Pembrokeshire 5.582ndConservative hold4Llanelli 7.042ndLabour gain5Cardiff North 7.192ndLabour gain

Plaid Cymru targets RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainPC's place 2007Result1Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 0.443rdConservative hold2Clwyd West 3.333rdConservative hold3Neath 3.362ndLabour hold4Caerphilly 4.382ndLabour hold5Preseli Pembrokeshire 6.923rdConservative hold

Conservative targets RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainCon's place 2007Result1Vale of Glamorgan 0.132ndLabour hold2Vale of Clwyd 0.212ndLabour hold3Delyn 1.182ndLabour hold4Gower 2.172ndLabour hold5Clwyd South 2.872ndLabour hold6Newport West 2.962ndLabour hold7Aberconwy 4.092ndConservative gain8Montgomeryshire 4.442ndConservative gain9Newport East 4.733rdLabour hold10Cardiff South & Penarth 5.152ndLabour hold11Bridgend 5.212ndLabour hold12Wrexham 5.783rdLabour hold13Swansea West 6.583rdLabour hold14Cardiff West 6.882ndLabour hold

Liberal Democrat targets RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLD's place 2007Result1Newport East 2.202ndLabour hold2Swansea West 3.302ndLabour hold3Wrexham 6.054thLabour hold4Ceredigion 6.572ndPlaid Cymru hold5Pontypridd 7.112ndLabour hold

New members 23 of the members elected to the assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.

Mick Antoniw, Labour Co-op, Pontypridd Byron Davies, Conservative, South Wales West electoral region Keith Davies, Labour Co-op, Llanelli Suzy Davies, Conservative, South Wales West electoral region Mark Drakeford, Labour, Cardiff West Rebecca Evans, Labour Co-op, Mid and West Wales electoral region Janet Finch-Saunders, Conservative, Aberconwy Russell George, Conservative, Montgomeryshire Vaughan Gething, Labour Co-op, Cardiff South and Penarth Llyr Huws Gruffydd, Plaid Cymru, North Wales electoral region Michael Hedges, Labour, Swansea East Julie James, Labour, Swansea West Julie Morgan, Labour, Cardiff North Eluned Parrott, Liberal Democrat, South Wales Central electoral region William Powell, Liberal Democrat, Mid and West Wales electoral region Gwyn Price, Labour, Islwyn Jenny Rathbone, Labour, Cardiff Central David Rees, Labour, Aberavon Aled Roberts, Liberal Democrat, North Wales electoral region (see below) Antoinette Sandbach, Conservative, North Wales electoral region Ken Skates, Labour, Clwyd South Simon Thomas, Plaid Cymru, Mid and West Wales electoral region Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru, South Wales East electoral region

2011 National Assembly for Wales election

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