The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin. John McCain outperformed McConnell by 4.4%, while Bruce Lunsford outperformed Obama by 5.88%.

Background In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat.

State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor. Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear. Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008, in which Lunsford took more than 50%.

Republican primary Candidates Daniel Essek Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Michael Cassaro Greg Fischer, businessman Bruce Lunsford, former Kentucky Secretary of Commerce and candidate for Governor in 2003 and 2007 James Rice Kenneth Stepp David Williams David Wylie

Results

General election Candidates Bruce Lunsford (D), businessman Mitch McConnell (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Campaign In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders."

A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate.

On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 23, 2008 CQ PoliticsRace Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics October 31, 2008 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2008 Real Clear Politics November 1, 2008

Polling Poll Source Dates administered Lunsford McConnellVoter/Consumer ResearchVoter/Consumer Research January 6–8, 2008 37% 52%Research 2000/Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT-TVResearch 2000/Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT-TV May 7–9, 2008 36% 48%Voter/Consumer ResearchVoter/Consumer Research May 21–22, 2008 39% 50%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 22, 2008 49% 44%Survey USASurvey USA June 13–16, 2008 46% 50%Voter/Consumer ResearchVoter/Consumer Research June 15–17, 2008 39% 50%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 41% 48%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports July 29, 2008 42% 52%Survey USA August 11, 2008 40% 52%Voter/Consumer ResearchVoter/Consumer Research September 7–9, 2008 35% 52%Research 2000 for Daily KosResearch 2000 for Daily Kos September 15–17, 2008 37% 50%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 21–22, 2008 46% 49%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 30, 2008 42% 51%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 20, 2008 48% 48%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 43% 50%Research 2000/Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT-TVResearch 2000/Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT-TV October 22, 2008 43% 47%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 29, 2008 44% 51%Survey USASurvey USA November 1, 2008 45% 53%

Results

By county CountyPrecinctsReportingLunsford% LunsfordMcConnell% McConnellTotal Adair16162,19830.88%4,92069.12%7,118 (R) Allen13132,33131.85%4,98768.15%7,318 (R) Anderson14144,78746.27%5,55853.73%10,345 (R) Ballard13131,89346.68%2,16253.32%4,055 (R) Barren24246,73541.15%9,63058.85%16,365 (R) Bath12122,74761.36%1,73038.64%4,477 (D) Bell33333,49438.83%5,50561.17%8,999 (R) Boone606015,22430.75%34,28569.25%49,509 (R) Bourbon18184,32552.26%3,95147.74%8,276 (D) Boyd474711,17454.23%9,43045.77%20,604 (D) Boyle25255,85446.90%6,62753.10%12,481 (R) Bracken881,38241.17%1,97558.83%3,357 (R) Breathitt21213,11161.41%1,95538.59%5,066 (D) Breckinridge15153,73644.02%4,75255.98%8,488 (R) Bullitt444412,50141.85%17,36858.15%29,869 (R) Butler12121,77133.59%3,50166.41%5,272 (R) Caldwell13132,82146.30%3,27253.70%6,093 (R) Calloway30306,87045.39%8,26654.61%15,136 (R) Campbell666614,78937.55%24,59162.45%39,380 (R) Carlisle661,22046.51%1,40353.49%2,623 (R) Carroll11112,15757.23%1,61242.77%3,769 (D) Carter23235,22053.74%4,49446.26%9,714 (D) Casey15151,78330.55%4,05369.45%5,836 (R) Christian44449,03040.79%13,10959.21%22,139 (R) Clark26267,43648.49%7,89851.51%15,334 (R) Clay20202,45833.85%4,80466.15%7,262 (R) Clinton13131,02925.42%3,01974.58%4,048 (R) Crittenden12121,61541.59%2,26858.41%3,883 (R) Cumberland9976328.62%1,90371.38%2,666 (R) Daviess848420,77947.94%22,56352.06%43,342 (R) Edmonson10101,99638.06%3,24961.94%5,245 (R) Elliott771,83071.99%71228.01%2,542 (R) Estill15152,16241.36%3,06558.64%5,227 (R) Fayette27427468,02954.15%57,60545.85%125,634 (R) Fleming18182,84550.04%2,84149.96%5,686 (D) Floyd424210,10564.35%5,59835.65%15,703 (D) Franklin444413,88859.00%9,65141.00%23,539 (R) Fulton13131,45653.49%1,26646.51%2,722 (D) Gallatin881,43545.66%1,70854.34%3,143 (R) Garrard13132,85840.11%4,26859.89%7,126 (R) Grant23233,40839.33%5,25760.67%8,665 (R) Graves30307,83948.76%8,23951.24%16,078 (R) Grayson23233,86339.23%5,98360.77%9,846 (R) Green10101,77735.73%3,19764.27%4,974 (R) Greenup32328,25852.83%7,37447.17%15,632 (D) Hancock10102,29856.09%1,79943.91%4,097 (D) Hardin555517,31843.68%22,32656.32%39,644 (R) Harlan35354,44045.92%5,22954.08%9,669 (R) Harrison17173,81450.47%3,74349.53%7,557 (D) Hart19192,96244.60%3,68055.40%6,642 (R) Henderson424211,04856.06%8,65943.94%19,707 (D) Henry20203,19446.52%3,67253.48%6,866 (R) Hickman661,04947.49%1,16052.51%2,209 (R) Hopkins40408,48144.87%10,41955.13%18,900 (R) Jackson14141,24524.71%3,79475.29%5,039 (R) Jefferson515515195,40155.73%155,24144.27%350,642 (D) Jessamine37377,84739.60%11,96960.40%19,816 (R) Johnson31313,25238.81%5,12861.19%8,380 (R) Kenton10810819,21736.26%33,78763.74%53,004 (R) Knott30303,47762.14%2,11837.86%5,595 (D) Knox30304,32939.01%6,76760.99%11,096 (R) LaRue12122,52341.97%3,48958.03%6,012 (R) Laurel45456,85031.15%15,13868.85%21,988 (R) Lawrence18182,64147.47%2,92352.53%5,564 (R) Lee10101,07339.77%1,62560.23%2,698 (R) Leslie17171,08325.15%3,22474.85%4,307 (R) Letcher32324,19851.82%3,90348.18%8,101 (D) Lewis14141,78738.26%2,88461.74%4,671 (R) Lincoln17174,11945.47%4,93954.53%9,058 (R) Livingston10102,14247.35%2,38252.65%4,524 (R) Logan20204,37940.70%6,37959.30%10,758 (R) Lyon661,82147.80%1,98952.20%3,810 (R) McCracken545413,00642.91%17,30357.09%30,309 (D) McCreary18181,57630.41%3,60669.59%5,182 (R) McLean882,22550.55%2,17749.45%4,402 (D) Madison565614,65745.96%17,23754.04%31,894 (R) Magoffin14142,71958.81%1,90441.19%4,623 (D) Marion17174,30457.68%3,15842.32%7,462 (D) Marshall25257,46348.94%7,78551.06%15,248 (R) Martin14141,20333.19%2,42266.81%3,625 (R) Mason20203,09544.58%3,84755.42%6,942 (R) Meade18185,14946.58%5,90553.42%11,054 (R) Menifee661,52061.51%95138.49%2,471 (D) Mercer17174,33844.17%5,48455.83%9,822 (R) Metcalfe12121,76644.03%2,24555.97%4,011 (R) Monroe12121,23727.16%3,31872.84%4,555 (R) Montgomery18185,52654.25%4,66045.75%10,186 (D) Morgan12122,47557.03%1,86542.97%4,340 (D) Muhlenberg26267,43657.90%5,40642.10%12,842 (R) Nelson26268,82349.60%8,96550.40%17,788 (R) Nicholas551,73759.47%1,18440.53%2,921 (D) Ohio25254,66447.08%5,24252.92%9,906 (R) Oldham343410,20435.25%18,74464.75%28,948 (R) Owen13132,01942.93%2,68457.07%4,703 (R) Owsley8855934.46%1,06365.54%1,622 (R) Pendleton12122,15537.97%3,52062.03%5,675 (R) Perry37375,02649.10%5,21150.90%10,237 (R) Pike575712,91257.16%9,67942.84%22,591 (D) Powell11112,86357.91%2,08142.09%4,944 (D) Pulaski57578,10832.20%17,07267.80%25,180 (R) Robertson5549849.21%51450.79%1,012 (R) Rockcastle14141,83730.55%4,17769.45%6,014 (R) Rowan18184,71058.71%3,31241.29%8,022 (D) Russell16162,45033.67%4,82766.33%7,277 (R) Scott35359,23847.36%10,26752.64%19,505 (R) Shelby33337,54641.15%10,79058.85%18,336 (R) Simpson13133,11844.29%3,92255.71%7,040 (R) Spencer11113,15939.64%4,81160.36%7,970 (R) Taylor20204,16338.52%6,64461.48%10,807 (R) Todd13131,77236.89%3,03263.11%4,804 (R) Trigg14142,63740.76%3,83359.24%6,470 (R) Trimble12121,92750.87%1,86149.13%3,788 (D) Union16163,33555.46%2,67844.54%6,013 (D) Warren636319,16243.84%24,54756.16%43,709 (R) Washington14142,31645.04%2,82654.96%5,142 (R) Wayne19193,04543.30%3,98756.70%7,032 (R) Webster14143,00054.39%2,51645.61%5,516 (D) Whitley36364,84936.37%8,48463.63%13,333 (R) Wolfe881,88662.74%1,12037.26%3,006 (D) Woodford16165,90348.65%6,23151.35%12,134 (R)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Bourbon (Largest city: Paris) Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton) Carter (Largest city: Grayson) Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville) Magoffin (Largest city: Salyersville) Trimble (Largest city: Bedford) Webster (Largest city: Providence) McLean (Largest city: Livermore) Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty) Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana) Henderson (Largest city: Henderson) Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins) Muhlenberg (Largest city: Central City) Greenup (Largest city: Flatwoods) Fulton (Largest city: Fulton) Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg) Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford) Bath (Largest city: Owingsville) Fayette (Largest city: Lexington) Marion (Largest city: Lebanon) Menifee (Largest city: Frenchburg) Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle) Rowan (Largest city: Morehead) Franklin (Largest city: Frankfort) Jefferson (Largest city: Louisville)

By congressional district McConnell won four of six congressional districts. District McConnell Lunsford Representative 56% 44%Ed Whitfield56%44%Ron Lewis (110th Congress)Brett Guthrie (111th Congress) 44% 56%John Yarmuth 59% 41%Geoff Davis 56% 44%Hal Rogers 49% 51%Ben Chandler

See also 2008 United States Senate elections

References

External links Kentucky State Board of Elections U.S. Congress candidates for Kentucky at Project Vote Smart – CQ Politics Kentucky U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com – 2008 Race Tracker – OpenSecrets – graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com Official campaign websites – Democratic nominee Mitch McConnell for Senate – Republican nominee