Post-election pendulum for the 2003 New South Wales state election

The Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 New South Wales state election. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras pendulum. The figures have been calculated on the basis of a redistribution completed in 2005.

A uniform swing against the incumbent Labor Party government would deliver seats on the left of the table to the opposition Liberal and National parties. A swing in the government's favour would deliver seats on the right of the table to Labor.

MPs shown in italics did not contest the 2007 election.

Very safe seats District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin Port Maccquarie Rob OakeshottTwo-candidate preferred result against Nationals Independent 31.9 points Cabramatta Reba Meagher Labor 31.8 points Marrickville Carmel TebbuttTwo-candidate preferred result against Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred result against Greens, who polled second, was 10.0 points Labor 31.6 points Liverpool Paul Lynch Labor 30.8 points Northern Tablelands Richard Torbay Independent 30.0 points Lakemba Morris Iemma Labor 28.8 points Canterbury Linda Burney Labor 27.6 points Wollongong Noreen Hay Labor 27.4 points ShellharbourSeat formerly known as Illawarra Marianne Saliba Labor 27.0 points Mount Druitt Richard Amery Labor 26.8 points Auburn Barbara Perry Labor 26.5 points Bankstown Tony Stewart Labor 26.4 points Fairfield Joe Tripodi Labor 26.0 points Smithfield Carl Scully Labor 25.9 points Blacktown Paul Gibson Labor 24.9 points Keira David Campbell Labor 24.0 points Heffron Kristina Keneally Labor 23.9 points Maroubra Michael Daley Labor 23.5 points Macquarie Fields Steven Chaytor Labor 22.6 points Albury Greg Aplin Liberal 22.5 points Wallsend John Mills Labor 20.1 points Davidson Andrew Humpherson Liberal 20.9 points

Safe seats District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin Campbelltown Graham West Labor 19.6 points Granville Kim Yeadon Labor 19.4 points Kogarah Cherie Burton Labor 19.3 points East Hills Alan Ashton Labor 18.6 points Cessnock Kerry Hickey Labor 18.5 points BalmainSeat formerly known as Port Jackson Sandra NoriTwo-candidate preferred margin to Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred margin to Greens, who polled second in this electorate, is 7.1 points Labor 17.6 points Swansea VacantSeat formerly held by Milton Orkopoulos. No by-election held after MP's resignation. Labor 17.1 points Toongabbie Pam AllanAllen held now-abolished district of Wentworthville, but is not running again. Labor 16.7 points Mulgoa Diane Beamer Labor 16.6 points Rockdale Frank Sartor Labor 16.0 points Newcastle Bryce Gaudry LaborGaudry is recontesting the seat as an independent 15.4 points Murrumbidgee Adrian Piccoli National 18.9 points Strathfield Virginia Judge Labor 14.9 points Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell Liberal 18.8 points Blue Mountains Bob Debus Labor 14.8 points Sydney Clover MooreMargin to ALP shown Independent 15.0 points Ryde John Watkins Labor 14.7 points Barwon Ian Slack-Smith National 14.7 points OatleySeat formerly known as Georges River Kevin Greene Labor 14.2 points Hawkesbury Steven Pringle LiberalPringle is recontesting the seat as an independent 14.6 points Parramatta Tanya Gadiel Labor 13.5 points Myall Lakes John Turner National 13.9 points Bathurst Gerard Martin Labor 13.4 points Wakehurst Brad Hazzard Liberal 13.2 points Charlestown Matthew Morris Labor 13.3 points Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire Liberal 12.7 points Coogee Paul Pearce Labor 13.2 points Burrinjuck Katrina Hodgkinson National 12.4 points Riverstone John Aquilina Labor 13.1 points North Shore Jillian Skinner Liberal 12.3 points Heathcote Paul McLeay Labor 12.3 points Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser National 11.9 points Wyong Paul Crittenden Labor 12.2 points Vaucluse Peter Debnam Liberal 10.9 points Lake Macquarie Jeff Hunter Labor 11.6 points Castle HillElectorate formerly known as The Hills Michael Richardson Liberal 10.8 points

Fairly safe seats District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin Maitland John Price Labor 9.8 points The Entrance Grant McBride Labor 9.6 points Miranda Barry Collier Labor 8.9 points Drummoyne Angela D'Amore Labor 8.8 points Menai Alison Megarrity Labor 8.4 points Oxley Andrew Stoner National 9.7 points Camden Geoff Corrigan Labor 8.3 points Ballina Don Page National 9.1 points Londonderry Allan Shearan Labor 8.2 points Cronulla Malcolm Kerr Liberal 8.6 points Gosford Marie AndrewsAndrews currently represents the now-abolished seat of Peats Labor 8.2 points Lismore Thomas George National 8.1 points Kiama Matt Brown Labor 8.1 points Epping Andrew Tink Liberal 7.6 points Port Stephens John Bartlett Labor 7.2 points Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 7.4 points Penrith Karyn Paluzzano Labor 6.6 points Upper Hunter George Souris National 7.2 points

Marginal seats District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin Orange Russell Turner National 5.9 points Clarence Steve Cansdell National 5.3 points Bega Andrew Constance Liberal 4.7 points Pittwater Alex McTaggartTwo-candidate preferred result against Liberal Party Independent 5.4 points Goulburn Peta SeatonSeaton represented the now-abolished seat of Southern Highlands Liberal 4.5 points Wollondilly New seat Labor 4.6 points Hornsby Judy Hopwood Liberal 4.2 points Monaro Steve Whan Labor 4.4 points Baulkham Hills Wayne Merton Liberal 4.0 points Tweed Neville Newell Labor 4.0 points Lane Cove Anthony Roberts Liberal 2.8 points Tamworth Peter Draper Independent 1.9 points South Coast Shelley Hancock Liberal 1.6 points Manly David Barr Independent 1.2 points Murray-Darling Peter BlackNotional National Party seat Labor −1.4 points Dubbo Dawn Fardell Independent 0.3 points TerrigalSeat formerly known as Gosford Chris Hartcher Liberal 0.6 points

Independents A version of the table published in The Australian on 19 February 2007 showed all seats as effectively Coalition or Labor depending on the favoured major party among the electorate's voters. On this interpretation, Clover Moore's seat of Sydney is shown on the government side, alone among the seven sitting independents.

Notes