Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

This article lists statewide public opinion polls conducted relating to the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries, typically using standard statistical methodology.

Candidates

The known candidates with national campaigns are John McCain, and Ron Paul, and Withdrawn candidates include Jim Gilmore, Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, John H. Cox, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Alan Keyes and Mitt Romney. Candidates who declined to seek the nomination include George Allen, Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Condoleezza Rice, Mark Sanford, and Rick Santorum. One candidate included in some polls who said nothing either way, and did not enter the race is George Pataki.

On March 4, 2008, John McCain received enough pledged delegates to receive a majority at the convention and became the presumptive nominee of the GOP in the general election.

Polling

Alabama Alabama Winner: Mike Huckabee Primary Date: February 5, 2008See also Poll SourceDateHighlightsActual ResultActual ResultFebruary 5, 2008Mike Huckabee 41%, John McCain 37%, Mitt Romney 18%, Ron Paul 3%, Other 1%Insider AdvantageInsider Advantage Sampling Size: 566February 4, 2008Mike Huckabee 38%, John McCain 29%, Mitt Romney 20%, Ron Paul 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 6%Survey USASurvey USA Sampling Size: 619Margin of Error: ±4%February 2–3, 2008John McCain 37%, Mike Huckabee 35%, Mitt Romney 19%, Ron Paul 6%, Other/Undecided 2%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Sampling Size: 890Margin of Error: ±4%January 31, 2008John McCain 38%, Mike Huckabee 30%, Mitt Romney 20%, Ron Paul 5%, Other/Undecided 7%Survey USASurvey USA Sampling Size: 629Margin of Error: ± 4%January 30–31, 2008John McCain 40%, Mike Huckabee 31%, Mitt Romney 21%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 2%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research Center Sampling Size: 371Margin of Error: ± 5%January 30–31, 2008John McCain 42%, Mike Huckabee 28%, Mitt Romney 13%, Ron Paul 4%, Other/Undecided 11%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research CenterJanuary 28–30, 2008John McCain 34%, Mike Huckabee 27%, Mitt Romney 15%, Ron Paul 3%, Other/Undecided 21%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Sampling Size: 846Margin of Error: ± 4%January 23, 2008Mike Huckabee 27%, John McCain 27%, Mitt Romney 15%, Rudy Giuliani 8%, Ron Paul 3%, Undecided 20%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research Center Margin of Error: +/- 5.6%January 11, 2008Mike Huckabee 32%, John McCain 25%, Fred Thompson 10%, Rudy Giuliani 7%, Mitt Romney 6%, Other 4%, Undecided 16%University of South Alabama/Press RegisterUniversity of South Alabama/Press Register Sampling Size: 439Margin of Error: ±4.7%January 7–10, 2008Mike Huckabee 25%, John McCain 22%, Fred Thompson 9%, Mitt Romney 8%, Rudy Giuliani 5%, Ron Paul 3%, Undecided 29%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research Center Sampling Size: 431Margin of Error: ±4.7%November 19–20, 2007Fred Thompson 22%, Rudy Giuliani 20%, Mike Huckabee 17%, John McCain 9%, Mitt Romney 5%, Ron Paul 3%, Alan Keyes 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 21%Capital Survey Research Center Margin of Error: +/- ?%Sample Size: N/ANovember 1, 2007Fred Thompson 26%, Rudy Giuliani 24%, John McCain 12%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Undecided 18%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Margin of Error: +/- 4%Sample Size: 600 (511 R, 89 I)July 30 – August 2, 2007Fred Thompson 31%, Rudy Giuliani 26%, John McCain 16%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Mitt Romney 3%, Sam Brownback 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Ron Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee -, Tom Tancredo -, Tommy Thompson -, Undecided 13%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research CenterJuly 11–13, 16–19, 2007Fred Thompson 34%, Rudy Giuliani 20%, John McCain 11%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Mitt Romney 5%Press-Register/University of South AlabamaPress-Register/University of South AlabamaApril 21–25, 2007John McCain 23%, Rudy Giuliani 22%, Mitt Romney 12%, Fred Thompson 10%, Newt Gingrich 7%Capital Survey Research CenterCapital Survey Research CenterFeb 19–22, 2007Rudy Giuliani 28%, John McCain 23%, Newt Gingrich 18%, Mitt Romney 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 23%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Feb 8–13, 2007Rudy Giuliani 31%, Newt Gingrich 25%, John McCain 19%, Mitt Romney 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Sam Brownback 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 16%

Alaska Alaska Winner: Mitt Romney Primary Date: February 5, 2008 Poll SourceDateHighlightsCaucus resultsCaucus Results Sampling Size: 11,620February 5, 2008Mitt Romney 44.1%, Mike Huckabee 21.9%, Ron Paul 16.8%, John McCain 15.5%, Uncommitted 1.6%

Arizona Arizona Winner: John McCain Primary Date: February 5, 2008See also Poll SourceDateHighlightsPrimary resultsPrimary Results Sampling Size: 482,343February 5, 2008John McCain 47.4%, Mitt Romney 34.1%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Ron Paul 4.2%, Rudy Giuliani 2.6%, Fred Thompson 1.8%, Duncan Hunter 0.2%, Other 0.6%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Margin of Error: ± 3.9%January 31, 2008John McCain 43%, Mitt Romney 34%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Ron Paul 7%,Behavior Research CenterBehavior Research Center Margin of Error: ± 6.3%January 20–24, 2008John McCain 40%, Mitt Romney 23%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Fred Thompson 7%, Rudy Giuliani 7%, Ron Paul 3%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 10%Arizona StateArizona State Margin of Error: +/- 5%Sample Size: 375January 17–20, 2008John McCain 41%, Mitt Romney 18%, Fred Thompson 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Rudy Giuliani 4%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 19%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Margin of Error: +/- 4%Sample Size: 600 (527 R, 73 I)October 5–9, 2007John McCain 26%, Rudy Giuliani 19%, Mitt Romney 18%, Fred Thompson 15%, Ron Paul 5%, Sam Brownback 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Duncan Hunter 0%, Alan Keyes 0%, Undecided 12%ASU/KNXV TV Poll Margin Of Error: +/- 4.5%Sample Size: 295August 29, 2007John McCain 24%, Mitt Romney 19%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Fred Thompson 17%American Research GroupJuly 23–26, 2007John McCain 32%, Rudy Giuliani 23%, Fred Thompson 15%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Mitt Romney 7%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Ron Paul 1%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Sam Brownback 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Tommy Thompson 0%, Undecided 13%Cronkite/Eight PollCronkite/Eight PollApril 19–22, 2007John McCain 32%, Rudy Giuliani 27%, Mitt Romney 11%, Newt Gingrich 9%, Fred Thompson 6%, Undecided 15%Behavior Research CenterMarch 23, 2007John McCain 34%, Rudy Giuliani 25%, Mitt Romney 11%, Condoleezza Rice 9%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Chuck Hagel 2, George Pataki 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 18%American Research GroupFeb 8–13, 2007John McCain 45%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Newt Gingrich 11%, Sam Brownback 3%, Mitt Romney 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Gilmore 0%, Hagel 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, George Pataki 0%, Ron Paul 0%, Tom Tancredo 0%, Tommy Thompson 0%, Undecided 18%Cronkite/Eight PollCronkite/Eight PollJanuary 24, 2007John McCain 54%, Newt Gingrich 14%, Mitt Romney 9%, Duncan Hunter 2%, Undecided 21%

Arkansas Arkansas Winner: Mike Huckabee Primary Date: February 5, 2008See also Poll SourceDateHighlightsPrimary resultsPrimary Results Sampling Size: 229,153February 5, 2008Mike Huckabee 60.5%, John McCain 20.2%, Mitt Romney 13.5%, Ron Paul 4.8%, Uncommitted 0.4%, Rudy Giuliani 0.3%, Fred Thompson 0.3%Global Strategy GroupGlobal Strategy Group Sampling Size: 608 Margin of Error: ±4.4%December 12–16, 2007Mike Huckabee 39%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, John McCain 11%, Mitt Romney 8%, Fred Thompson 4%, Ron Paul 3%, Undecided 22%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Margin of Error: +/- 4%Sample Size: 600 (448 R, 152 I)March 16–19, 2007Mike Huckabee 40%, John McCain 21%, Rudy Giuliani 12%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Fred Thompson 5%, Mitt Romney 4%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Chuck Hagel 0%, Sam Brownback 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Duncan Hunter 0%, Tommy Thompson 0%, Ron Paul 0%, Undecided 10%

California California Winner: John McCain Primary Date: February 5, 2008 See also Poll SourceDateHighlightsPrimary resultsPrimary Results Sampling Size: 2,351,930February 5, 2008John McCain 41.9%, Mitt Romney 34.1%, Mike Huckabee 11.6%, Rudy Giuliani 4.9%, Ron Paul 4.2%, Fred Thompson 1.9%, Duncan Hunter 0.5%, Tom Tancredo 0.1%, Other 0.6%Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Sampling Size: 833 Margin of Error: ±3.4%February 3–4, 2008Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 33%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 3%, Other 4%, Undecided 8%Survey USASurvey USA Sampling Size: 556 Margin of Error: ±4.2%February 3–4, 2008John McCain 39%, Mitt Romney 38%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 5%, Undecided 2%Reuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyReuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Sampling Size: 915 Margin of Error: ±3.3%February 1–3, 2008Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 32%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 4%, Undecided 8%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Sampling Size: 652 Margin of Error: ±4%February 2, 2008John McCain 38%, Mitt Romney 38%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Ron Paul 6%, Other 6%, Undecided 2%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Sampling Size: 600 Margin of Error: ±4%February 1–2, 2008Mitt Romney 33%, John McCain 32%, Mike Huckabee 16%, Ron Paul 8%, Other/Undecided 11%Reuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyReuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Sampling Size: 1185 Margin of Error: ±2.9%January 31 – February 2, 2008Mitt Romney 37%, John McCain 34%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 5%, Other/Undecided 13%McClatchy/MSNBC /Mason DixonMcClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon Margin of Error: ±4.8%January 31 – February 1, 2008John McCain 40%, Mitt Romney 31%, Mike Huckabee 13%, Ron Paul 3%, Undecided 11%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University Sampling Size: 500 Margin of Error: ±4.5%January 31 – February 1, 2008John McCain 38.5%, Mitt Romney 32.4%, Mike Huckabee 8.2%, Ron Paul 3.5%, Undecided 13.7%, Refused 3.6%FieldField Sampling Size: 481 Margin of Error: ±4.6%January 25 – February 1, 2008John McCain 32%, Mitt Romney 24%, Mike Huckabee 13%, Ron Paul 10%, Other 6%, Undecided 15%Rasmussen Reports Sampling Size: 652 Margin of Error: ±4%January 29, 2008John McCain 32%, Mitt Romney 28%, Rudy Giuliani 14%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 6%, Undecided 3%Survey USASurvey USA Sampling Size: 506 Margin of Error: ±4.4%January 27, 2008John McCain 37%, Mitt Romney 25%, Mike Huckabee 14%, Rudy Giuliani 12%, Ron Paul 4%, Other 3%, Undecided 5%Politico/CNN/Los Angeles TimesPolitico/CNN/Los Angeles Times Sampling Size: 437 Margin of Error: ±4.5%January 23–27, 2008John McCain 39%, Mitt Romney 26%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Undecided 4%USA Today/GalupUSA Today/Galup Sampling Size: 552 Margin of Error: ±5%January 23–26, 2008John McCain 36%, Mitt Romney 31%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rudy Giuliani 9%, Ron Paul 4%, Alan Keyes 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%Field ResearchField Research Sampling Size: 377 Margin of Error: ±5.2%January 14–20, 2008John McCain 22%, Mitt Romney 18%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Rudy Giuliani 11%, Fred Thompson 9%, Ron Paul 7%, Other 1%, Unsure 21%Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California Sampling Size: 348 Margin of Error: ±5%January 13–20, 2008John McCain 29%, Mitt Romney 17%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Fred Thompson 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Duncan Hunter 2%, Other 3%, Unsure 14%Rasmussen Reports Sampling Size: 471 Margin of Error: ±4.5%January 14, 2008John McCain 24%, Mitt Romney 17%, Mike Huckabee 13%, Fred Thompson 13%, Rudy Giuliani 11%, Ron Paul 4%, Unsure 16%Survey USASurvey USA Sampling Size: 509 Margin of Error: ±4.4%January 11–13, 2008John McCain 33%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Mike Huckabee 14%, Mitt Romney 13%, Fred Thompson 9%, Ron Paul 4%, Unsure 4%, Other 3%Politico/CNN/Los Angeles TimesPolitico/CNN/Los Angeles Times Sampling Size: 255 Margin of Error: ±6%January 11–13, 2008John McCain 20%, Mitt Romney 16%, Rudy Giuliani 14%, Mike Huckabee 13%, Ron Paul 8%, Fred Thompson 6%, Unsure 11%Field Research Corp.Field Research Corp. Sample Size: 322 Margin of Error: ± 5.7%December 10–17, 2007Rudy Giuliani 25%, Mike Huckabee 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 12%, Fred Thompson 6%, Ron Paul 3%, Duncan Hunter 3%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Undecided 18%Survey USASurvey USA