2005 Basque regional election

A regional election was held in the Basque Country on 17 April 2005 to elect the 8th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

The electoral alliance Basque Nationalist Party–Basque Solidarity (PNV–EA) won 29 seats, the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE) came second with 18 seats, the People's Party (PP) came in third with 15 seats. The controversial Communist Party of the Basque Homelands (PCTV/EHAK) won 9 seats, having been endorsed by the banned Batasuna party.

Overview Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Basque Parliament was the unicameral legislature of the Basque Autonomous Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a lehendakari.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.; . The previous election was held on 13 May 2001, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 13 May 2005. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 19 April 2005, setting the latest possible date for election day on 12 June 2005.

The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process.. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a 60-day period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..

The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 22 February 2005 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOPV, setting election day for 17 April..

Electoral system Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ).

The Basque Parliament had 75 seats. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Guipúzcoa, each of which was assigned a fixed number of 25 seats to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.; ; . The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in February 2005 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group EAJ/PNV 26 26 Basque People's Parliamentary Group PP 19 19 Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group PSE–EE (PSOE) 13 13 Patriotic Socialist Parliamentary Group Batasuna 7 7 Basque Solidarity Parliamentary Group EA 7 7 Mixed Group EB–B 3 3

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ).

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PNV–EA Juan José Ibarretxe Basque nationalismChristian democracyConservative liberalism 42.4% PP María San Gil ConservatismChristian democracy 22.9% PSE–EE(PSOE) Patxi López Social democracy 17.8% PCTV/EHAK Maite Aranburu Basque independenceAbertzale leftCommunism 10.0% EB–B Javier Madrazo Eco-socialismDemocratic socialism 5.5% UA Enriqueta Benito Alavese regionalismChristian democracy colspan="2" Aralar Aintzane Ezenarro Basque independenceLeft-wing nationalismDemocratic socialism colspan="2"

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2005 regional election 17 Apr 2005 68.0 38.4 17.3 22.5 – 5.3 0.3 2.3 12.4 15.9 TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 17 Apr 2005????? –? –??? Ipsos–Eco/EITB 17 Apr 2005 65,000???? –? –??? Ipsos–Eco/RTVE 17 Apr 2005?? 40.3 16.2 22.5 – 6.0 – 2.3 11.0 17.8 TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 17 Apr 2005?? 39.9 18.0 18.2 – 6.1 – 3.1 11.3 21.7 Opina/Cadena SER 17 Apr 2005?? 42.0 16.0 21.5 –? –? 7.0 20.5 Opina/El País 10 Apr 2005?? 42.7 15.1 21.6 – 7.6 – 2.3 4.3 21.1 Opina/Cadena SER 10 Apr 2005?? 42.7 15.1 21.6 (3.4) 7.6 – 2.3 4.3 21.1 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Apr 2005?? 44.3 14.5 23.2 (2.9) 6.6 – 2.6 3.7 21.1 Opina/Cadena SER 8 Apr 2005?? 45.7 14.5 23.5 (3.3) 6.3 – 1.9 2.7 22.2 Opina/Cadena SER 7 Apr 2005?? 43.5 15.6 24.5 (3.3) 6.4 0.2 1.6 2.5 22.2 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 5–7 Apr 2005 1,000? 45.6 18.3 20.8 – 5.5 – 1.9 6.6 24.8 Noxa/La Vanguardia 4–7 Apr 2005 900? 46.5 19.7 23.2 – 6.9 ?? – 23.3? 42.9 18.2 21.4 – 6.4 0.6 2.1 8.4 21.5 Ikertalde/GPS 1–7 Apr 2005 2,002 72.5 42.7 15.8 21.3 – 6.7 0.2 2.6 9.7 21.4 Opina/Cadena SER 6 Apr 2005?? 45.7 15.4 21.4 (4.6) 6.8 0.2 2.0 1.2 24.3 LKS/Diario de Noticias 30 Mar–6 Apr 2005 1,500 75??? –? –??? Opina/Cadena SER 5 Apr 2005?? 45.5 15.3 20.6 (6.4) 6.7 0.2 2.3 0.2 24.9 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Apr 2005?? 45.5 16.0 21.5 – 6.5 – 3.5 – 24.0 CIS 29 Mar–4 Apr 2005 1,495? 42.5 17.8 22.2 – 6.2 – 2.7 – 20.3 Opina/Cadena SER 3 Apr 2005?? 45.0 16.0 21.5 – 7.0 – 3.5 – 23.5 Bergareche/Vocento 1–3 Apr 2005 3,100? 40.4 20.8 18.3 (6.9) 7.4 0.3 3.7 – 19.6 Opina/Cadena SER 1 Apr 2005?? 44.8 16.0 21.0 – 7.0 – 3.5 – 23.8 Celeste-Tel/La Razón 29 Mar–1 Apr 2005 801? 42.9 18.9 22.9 – 6.0 – 1.6 – 20.0 Opina/Cadena SER 31 Mar 2005?? 44.8 16.6 20.6 – 7.0 – 3.5 – 24.2 CIS 22 Feb–16 Mar 2005 1,499? 42.8 19.1 22.2 – 6.2 0.5 1.2 – 20.6 PSE 1–11 Mar 2005?? 41.2? 23.7 –? –? – 17.5 Bergareche/Vocento 1–8 Mar 2005 3,100? 43.3 19.9 20.4 (5.3) 6.2 – 3.2 – 22.9 Opina/El País 24–25 Feb 2005 1,500? 45.5 19.5 22.0 – 6.5 – – – 23.5 Ikertalde/GPS 18 Jan–2 Feb 2005 2,874 75.0 41.1 15.8 22.3 9.4 6.7 0.3 2.9 – 18.8 CPS/EHU 8–26 Nov 2004 1,200 76 42.4 18.1 23.6 – 5.8 – 3.1 – 18.8 2004 EP election 13 Jun 2004 44.6 35.3 21.0 28.2 – 4.2 7.8 – 1.3 – 7.1 CPS/EHU 3–28 May 2004 1,800 75 43.7 17.5 25.6 – 6.1 4.3 – 18.1 2004 general election 14 Mar 2004 75.0 33.7 18.9 27.2 – 8.2 6.5 – 3.1 – 6.5 CPS/EHU 3–21 Nov 2003 1,800 70 44.3 24.1 19.0 – 6.7 ? – 20.2 2003 foral elections 25 May 2003 70.0 45.3 19.6 21.6 – 8.1 0.6 3.2 – 23.7 CPS/EHU 1–20 Nov 2002 1,200? 42.1 21.3 19.0 9.3 6.7 – – 20.8 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 579 74.2 38.8 21.1 19.1 7.9 5.6 5.6 – – – 17.7 CPS/EHU 15–30 May 2001?? 43.6 20.8 18.0 9.8 6.3 – – 22.8 CPS/EHU 2–21 Nov 2001?? 43.5 21.0 18.1 9.8 6.1 – – 22.5 2001 regional election 13 May 2001 79.0 42.4 22.9 17.8 10.0 5.5 – – 19.5

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2005 regional election 17 Apr 2005 26.3 11.9 15.5 – 3.7 0.2 1.6 8.5 31.0 10.8 CIS 29 Mar–4 Apr 2005 1,495 30.4 2.8 10.1 5.1 4.6 0.1 2.2 – 30.4 11.3 20.3 CIS 22 Feb–16 Mar 2005 1,499 31.3 4.1 9.4 – 3.7 0.1 0.8 – 31.1 12.5 21.9 2004 EP election 13 Jun 2004 14.0 8.3 11.2 – 1.7 3.1 – 0.5 – 54.9 2.8 2004 general election 14 Mar 2004 23.6 13.2 19.1 – 5.8 4.6 – 2.2 – 24.1 4.5 2003 foral elections 25 May 2003 28.4 12.3 13.5 – 5.1 0.4 2.0 – 30.0 14.9 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 579 20.6 3.8 6.0 3.8 3.8 2.9 – – – 40.7 16.1 14.6 2001 regional election 13 May 2001 33.1 17.9 13.8 7.9 4.3 – – 20.1 15.2

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina/Cadena SER 10 Apr 2005? 42.5 10.8 16.7 – – – – 10.7 19.2 25.8 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Apr 2005? 41.1 9.6 16.9 – – – – 11.5 20.8 24.2 Opina/Cadena SER 8 Apr 2005? 42.2 9.7 16.0 – – – – 10.4 21.6 26.2 Opina/Cadena SER 7 Apr 2005? 40.8 10.0 16.0 – – – – 10.0 23.3 24.8 Opina/Cadena SER 6 Apr 2005? 44.0 9.8 14.7 – – – – 8.6 23.0 29.3 Opina/Cadena SER 5 Apr 2005? 43.9 9.2 14.9 – – – – 8.4 23.6 29.0 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Apr 2005? 43.1 9.4 15.4 – – – – 8.9 23.2 27.7 CIS 29 Mar–4 Apr 2005 1,495 37.6 3.0 13.4 2.7 4.0 0.2 2.5 12.7 23.9 24.2 Opina/Cadena SER 3 Apr 2005? 43.1 9.9 15.3 – – – – 9.5 22.2 27.8 Opina/Cadena SER 1 Apr 2005? 42.4 10.2 16.1 – – – – 9.3 22.0 26.3 Opina/Cadena SER 31 Mar 2005? 42.5 10.3 16.1 – – – – 9.2 22.0 26.4 CIS 22 Feb–16 Mar 2005 1,499 38.3 5.3 12.6 – 4.6 0.1 1.2 5.7 32.2 25.7

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina/Cadena SER 10 Apr 2005? 86.4 0.9 1.7 – – – 0.3 10.6 84.7 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Apr 2005? 85.7 0.8 1.8 – – – 0.6 10.9 83.9 Opina/Cadena SER 8 Apr 2005? 85.0 0.9 1.7 – – – 0.8 11.6 83.3 Opina/Cadena SER 7 Apr 2005? 82.8 1.0 1.9 – – – 1.0 13.3 80.9 Opina/Cadena SER 6 Apr 2005? 85.3 0.7 1.8 – – – 0.8 11.5 83.5 Opina/Cadena SER 5 Apr 2005? 84.8 0.6 1.6 – – – 1.0 12.0 83.2 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Apr 2005? 84.9 0.5 1.8 – – – 1.2 11.5 83.1 CIS 29 Mar–4 Apr 2005 1,495 81.1 0.5 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 14.6 78.4 Opina/Cadena SER 3 Apr 2005? 85.2 0.9 2.1 – – – 0.8 11.0 83.1 Opina/Cadena SER 1 Apr 2005? 84.1 1.1 2.4 – – – 0.5 11.9 81.7 Opina/Cadena SER 31 Mar 2005? 83.8 1.1 2.4 – – – 0.3 12.4 81.4

Preferred Lehendakari The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.