Presidential elections were held in Taiwan on 20 March 2004. A consultative referendum took place on the same day regarding relations with the People's Republic of China.

President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu of the Democratic Progressive Party were re-elected by a narrow margin of 0.22% over a combined opposition ticket of Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan and People First Party Chairman James Soong. Lien and Soong refused to concede and unsuccessfully challenged the results.

Formation of the tickets Democratic Progressive Party

In the months leading up to December 2003, there was speculation as to whether President Chen would choose Vice President Annette Lu as his running mate. Polls had consistently showed that Chen would do better with another candidate such as Taipei county administrator Su Tseng-chang or Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh, and many of the DPP's most popular lawmakers had petitioned Chen to seriously consider another candidate. After several weeks of very public infighting between various factions of the DPP, Chen formally nominated Lu as his running mate on December 11. They were backed by the Pan-Green Coalition.

The existence of only two tickets on the ballot led to several protest movements against both coalitions (most notably the Alliance of One Million Invalid Ballots) asking people to disqualify their ballots on purpose. This was partly responsible for the high number of invalid votes compared to the 2000 election.

Kuomintang and People First Party In February 2003, the KMT and PFP agreed to run a combined ticket representing the entire Pan-Blue Coalition with Lien Chan for president and James Soong for vice president. The campaign emblem for the Lien-Soong campaign was a two-seat bicycle with a blue figure in the first seat and an orange figure in the second. There were initial doubts to this pairing since it was believed that the two men personally disliked each other—during the 2000 presidential election, Lien had accused Soong of positioning his family graves to interfere with Lien's Feng Shui, forcing Lien to reposition his graves. Additionally, it was thought to be difficult for the two men to agree upon who would run for president and who would run for vice president. Though Soong polled ahead of Lien in 2000 and was thought to be much more charismatic, he ended up running for vice president. The PFP's poor showing in the 2001 legislative election may have played a role in this decision. Initially, it was believed that the Lien-Soong ticket would be a sure win, given that both men garnered a combined 59.9% of the vote in 2000.

Issues

Although the political spectrum on Taiwan is defined in terms of Taiwan independence versus Chinese unification, both campaigns took moderate positions on this issue. Members of the electorate who were influenced greatly by either independence or unification were loyal iron votes for the Pan-Green or Pan-Blue coalitions respectively, so the goal of both campaigns was to capture the moderate middle.

The theme of the Pan-Green Coalition was to portray themselves as Taiwanese nationalists and reformers and the opposition as corrupt and lacking in loyalty to Taiwan. The theme of the Pan-Blue Coalition was to question Chen's competence and also to focus in on issues which interested specific interest groups. The Pan-Blue Coalition staunchly defended the existence of the Republic of China and also rejected unification under one country, two systems. They also abandoned the Under the Roof of One China policy.

The main issues in the campaign were relations with the People's Republic of China, political reform, and the economy. In addition, although they tend not be noticed by the international press, local issues were important in the campaign, particularly because these issues influence undecided voters. These issues varied from county to county but included funding for irrigation projects, the location of expressways, and location of local administrative boundaries.

As the election approached, the tone of campaigning became increasingly negative, with charges of tax evasion, draft dodging, illegal financial transactions, and domestic violence on the part of Lien Chan. Most observers attributed the negative nature of the campaign to the fact that each campaign had moderated their platforms to the extent that they were similar to each other, leaving nothing other than personal attacks to attract the few uncommitted voters in the race.

Demographic trends and public opinion

On the day of the election, each member of the electorate (most adult citizens aged 20 and upwards) stamped one from the two choices of president/vice-president tickets on the ballot. Since Taiwan does not provide absentee ballots, large numbers of Taiwanese expatriates living in North America and mainland China returned to Taiwan to vote. Typical estimates indicate that about 20,000 people travelled from North America and between 100,000 and 150,000 people travelled from mainland China. Most analysts believe that the voters from North America would be split evenly between the two candidates, but that those from mainland China voted overwhelmingly for Pan-Blue.

Polls indicated that Taiwan is split with about one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Blue, one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Green, and one-third as centrist. They also showed very little cross-party voting with over 90% of people who identify with one party group stating that they would vote for the party.

Pan-Blue did well among mainlanders, Taiwanese aborigines, and Hakka. They also showed strong support among 30–50-year-olds, the very rich, the very poor, and residents of northern and eastern Taiwan. Pan-Green did well among people aged 20–30 and 50–60, people with formal education (such as doctors), and residents of southern Taiwan.

The margin in favor of Pan-Blue narrowed significantly after the 228 Hand-in-Hand Rally, with some polls showing Pan-Green in the lead. Taiwanese law forbids publishing any poll results, either current or historical, less than ten days before the election.

Platforms and strategies

The DPP attempted to portray the Lien-Soong ticket as one which would sell out Taiwan to the PRC, and emphasized constitutional reform, proposing a new constitution, and a "peace referendum". This has led to fears that Chen intends to use a new constitution and a referendum to declare Taiwan independence. Worries about this have caused the United States at several points to ask for, and receive assurances that Chen has not abandoned the Four Noes and One Without policy.

The Lien-Soong ticket attempted to portray Chen as someone who let politics get in the way of improving the Taiwanese economy. Originally emphasizing Chen's inability to establish the Three Links with mainland China, the Lien-Soong ticket changed its message, in light of the SARS outbreak in mid-2003, to focus more on what they see as Chen's inability to deal with the recession. Until October 2003, the Lien-Soong strategy appeared to be to avoid doing or saying anything controversial to keep its lead. This strategy was widely seen as counterproductive by the end of October when Pan-Green started to pull ahead.

Chen's rise in the polls in 2003 caused the opposition to change its campaign strategy. To counter Chen's platform for a new constitution by 2008, the opposition campaigned for a major constitutional change by 2004. In addition, the opposition stopped its stalling of a referendum bill.

By the end of November 2003, the Lien-Soong ticket had appeared to recover some of the losses in polls that had occurred in October.

Both groups, in January 2004, seemed not to be focusing on issues of external policies, but instead on issues of personal finances. The Pan-Green Coalition raised the issue of Lien Chan's personal wealth and the properties which they asserted that the Kuomintang had illegally acquired while it was the ruling party. In response, the Pan-Blue Coalition asked why Chen Shui-bian has become much wealthier after assuming the presidency.

In March 2004, as the campaign was winding down, a series of posters comparing Chen to Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, and Osama bin Laden were released by the Pan-Blue Coalition, creating controversy. The coalition eventually apologized to Taiwan's Jewish community for the comparison, although it refused to do so to Chen himself.

Reaction from the PRC

Most observers believed that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would have preferred to see Chen Shui-bian replaced by an administration less sympathetic to Taiwan independence and more in favor of Chinese unification. However, some observers believed that the PRC cared less about who became the President of the ROC, than that this person establish economic linkages which Beijing believes would bind Taiwan irrevocably to the mainland.

In contrast to the elections of 1996 and 2000, the PRC was quiet in this election until early November. Most observers believed that this was because the PRC learned that any comments, especially in the form of threats, were likely to be counterproductive. The PRC broke its silence in mid November 2003 and issued several very sharp threats that it would not stand by if Taiwan declared independence. This widely was seen as in response to two factors. In early November 2003, Chen Shui-bian took an unofficial trip to the United States in which he was much more publicly seen than before. This trip increased his popularity on Taiwan to the point where most polls indicated that he was even with or slightly ahead of Lien. The trip in November 2003, also alarmed the PRC in that it appeared to convince them that the United States would do less to constrain Chen Shui-bian than they had earlier believed. In December 2003, after the United States clarified its position on Taiwan stating support for the One-China policy and opposition to any referendum that would tend to move Taiwan toward independence, the PRC toned down its criticism and focused its attention on the proposed referendum rather than on the presidential race.

Incident of the Pan-Blue campaign offices

In February 2004, former Justice Minister Liao Cheng-hao, attempted to establish four campaign office branches on mainland China with the purpose of convincing Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland to support Pan-Blue. News of this caused an uproar on Taiwan, especially after Liao was photographed with several fugitives from Taiwan. Lien Chan quickly distanced himself from this action, and Liao wrote an essay stating that his activities were not authorized. Shortly thereafter, the PRC Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman said, "We did not, do not and will not interfere with elections in Taiwan...We do not care who will be elected. What we care about is the winner's attitude towards cross-Taiwan Strait relations and national reunification," and PRC issued instructions to local officials not to allow Taiwanese businessmen to openly campaign on the mainland.

At the same time, a number of organizations were operating to help Taiwanese businessmen return to Taiwan in order to vote. Though these organizations were formally politically neutral, most Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland widely favored Pan-Blue.

Election mechanics The official campaigning period was from 07:00 to 22:00 every day from February 21, 2004, to March 19, 2004, though campaign activities had gone on for over a year. Taiwanese law forbids reports of polls in the last ten days of campaigning and any campaigning on the day of the election. Ballots in Taiwan are counted by hand with results generally available within two hours of the end of the election.