2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey

The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who was also the nominee for this seat in 1996. This is the most recent U.S. Senate race in New Jersey where both major candidates have since died.

Background In November 2006, Senator Lautenberg had the lowest approval rating of any Democratic incumbent running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% of respondents approving and 45% disapproving), with his approval improving only slightly to 42% as of September 2007. In September 2007, his approval had improved slightly to 42%, but 46% of respondents in the same survey believed that Lautenberg did not deserve re-election (against 36% who believed he did) and 54% believed that he was too old to effectively serve another six-year term in the Senate."Voters still say Lautenberg is too old". PolitickerNJ.com, September 25, 2007. Accessed April 8, 2008.

However, the prevailing political climate at the time of the election was also a major factor. Voter anger was directed against the Republican Party, and many Democrats once considered vulnerable managed to hold on.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. senator (1982–2001, 2003–2013) Eliminated in primary Rob Andrews, U.S. representative from NJ-01 (1990–2014) Donald Cresitello, mayor of Morristown (1977–1981, 2006–2010)

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error FrankKautenberg RobAndrews DonaldCresitello UndecidedRasmussen ReportsMay 15, 2008500 (LV)± 4.5%49%19%7%25%Joel Benenson (D)April 1–2, 2008500 (LV)–52%21%–27%

Results

Results by county + Results by county County Lautenberg % Andrews % Cresitello % Atlantic4,798 45.4%5,28750.1%472 4.5% Bergen26,84878.9%5,645 16.6%1,554 4.6% Burlington7,757 42.4%9,48351.8%1,059 5.8% Camden5,995 16.5%29,17580.1%1,256 3.4% Cape May1,433 45.4%1,56649.6%159 5.0% Cumberland1,74646.1%1,79947.5%246 6.5% Essex31,84476.4%8,671 20.8%1,190 2.9% Gloucester3,135 17.0%14,77580.0%563 3.0% Hudson28,44674.8%8,233 21.7%1,343 3.5% Hunterdon2,06158.8%1,180 33.7%264 7.5% Mercer10,09374.0%3,053 22.4%494 3.6% Middlesex17,13162.0%7,918 28.7%2,573 9.3% Monmouth10,57066.3%3,568 22.4%1,808 11.3% Morris8,43265.0%3,151 24.3%1,394 10.7% Ocean8,86957.9%5,037 32.9%1,421 9.3% Passaic9,84279.3%1,700 13.7%872 7.0% Salem928 31.9%1,73459.6%248 8.5% Somerset5,64064.7%2,209 25.3%873 10.0% Sussex1,37952.7%784 29.9%456 17.4% Union15,10367.6%6,179 27.7%1,060 4.7% Warren96247.4%630 31.0%438 21.6%

Republican primary Candidates Joseph Pennacchio, state senator Murray Sabrin, professor at Ramapo College and perennial candidate Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996

Withdrew Anne Evans Estabrook, real estate developer Andrew Unanue, former Goya Foods executive (endorsed Zimmer)

Declined Kip Bateman, state senator Mehmet Oz, cardiologist

Results

Official results, New Jersey Division of Elections (PDF, July 11, 2008)

Results by county County Zimmer% Pennacchio% Sabrin% Atlantic 3,90965%1,32222%81013% Bergen 5,14530%10,76162%1,3848% Burlington 8,62963%2,86921%2,27616% Camden 3,12349%2,16634%1,03616% Cape May 3,61570%1,03420%4839% Cumberland 1,56672%39518%22510% Essex 3,59257%2,26236%4938% Gloucester 1,20626%2,16147%1,25427% Hudson 1,48748%95531%64121% Hunterdon 5,51960%2,73030%97711% Mercer 2,55556%1,53834%48811% Middlesex 2,60333%4,19554%1,02113% Monmouth 7,98156%4,63033%1,51011% Morris 8,09436%12,70056%1,8558% Ocean 10,87548%4,82021%6,77830% Passaic 1,27120%4,57072%5458% Salem 76947%65741%19312% Somerset 5,22746%4,87543%1,17010% Sussex 2,85040%3,62151%6479% Union 2,89632%4,65352%1,38815% Warren 1,75146%1,63243%40211%

General election Candidates Jeff Boss, perennial candidate and conspiracy theorist (Independent)2008 General Election Candidate Certification , New Jersey Division of Elections. Accessed September 28, 2008 Daryl Mikell Brooks (Independent) J.M. Carter (Independent) Carl Peter Klapper (Independent; write-in) Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. Senator (Democratic) Sara Lobman (Socialist Workers) Jason Scheurer (Libertarian) Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative (Republican)

Debates The first poll conducted after the primaries showed a tighter than expected race between Lautenberg and Zimmer, with the two candidates in a virtual tie."Election 2008: New Jersey Senate - New Jersey Senate Race a Dead Heat" , Rasmussen Reports, June 9, 2008. Accessed June 9, 2008.

On October 29, 2008, a debate between Lautenberg and Zimmer was held on the radio station NJ 101.5.Burton, Cynthia. "Lautenberg and Zimmer spar over issues", The Philadelphia Inquirer, October 30, 2008.

On November 1, 2008, the two candidates debated for the second time on New Jersey Network, in the only televised debate agreed to by the Lautenberg campaign.Schwaneberg, Robert. Lautenberg, Zimmer agree to debate on Nov. 1, The Star-Ledger, October 1, 2008.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 23, 2008 CQ PoliticsRace Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics October 31, 2008 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2008 Real Clear Politics October 31, 2008

Polling Source Date FrankLautenberg (D) DickZimmer (R) Rasmussen Reports June 4, 2008 45% 44%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University June 5–8, 2008 47% 38%Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityFairleigh Dickinson University June 17–22, 2008 45% 28%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports July 7, 2008 49% 36%Strategic VisionStrategic Vision July 11–13, 2008 48% 32%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University July 17–21, 2008 45% 37% Club for Growth July 30–31, 2008 35% 36% Rasmussen Reports August 4, 2008 51% 33%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University August 4–10, 2008 48% 41%Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityFairleigh Dickinson University September 4–7, 2008 46% 35%Marist CollegeMarist College September 5–8, 2008 51% 40%The RecordThe Record / Research 2000Research 2000 September 9–11, 2008 49% 41%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 10–14, 2008 48% 39%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University September 11–14, 2008 46% 36%Strategic VisionStrategic Vision September 14–16, 2008 47% 40%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 16, 2008 49% 42%Survey USASurvey USA September 27–28, 2008 51% 38%Strategic VisionStrategic Vision September 26–28, 2008 48% 41%Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityFairleigh Dickinson University September 29 – October 5, 2008 50% 34%Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2008 51% 37%Survey USASurvey USA October 11–12, 2008 51% 38%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University October 15–18, 2008 52% 36%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 16–19, 2008 55% 33%Marist CollegeMarist College October 20–21, 2008 48% 41%Strategic VisionStrategic Vision October 24–26, 2008 49% 41%Survey USASurvey USA October 29–30, 2008 52% 37%

Results

By county County Frank LautenbergDecember Dick ZimmerRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Atlantic 61,464 56.54% 45,509 41.87% 1,724 1.59% 15,955 14.67% 108,697 Bergen 210,799 56.69% 159,306 42.84% 1,724 0.46% 51,493 13.85% 371,829 Burlington 114,781 56.32% 85,841 42.12% 3,191 1.57% 28,940 14.20% 203,813 Camden 144,640 66.56% 69,821 32.13% 2,849 1.31% 74,819 34.43% 217,310 Cape May 20,374 45.22% 23,697 52.60% 984 2.18% -3,323 -7.38% 45,055 Cumberland 31,052 61.00% 18,498 36.34% 1,357 2.66% 12,554 24.66% 50,907 Essex 198,623 75.01% 61,829 23.35% 4,348 1.64% 136,794 51.66% 264,800 Gloucester 72,990 55.72% 55,024 42.00% 2,992 2.28% 17,966 13.72% 131,006 Hudson 126,098 73.72% 40,573 23.72% 4,373 2.56% 85,525 50.00% 171,044 Hunterdon 22,824 34.89% 40,309 61.63% 2,276 3.48% -17,485 -26.74% 65,409 Mercer 91,088 62.22% 52,298 35.73% 3,004 2.05% 38,790 26.49% 146,390 Middlesex 175,284 59.55% 112,590 38.25% 6,489 2.20% 62,694 21.30% 294,363 Monmouth 132,189 45.67% 150,238 51.90% 7,034 2.43% -18,049 -6.23% 289,461 Morris 94,558 42.52% 124,198 55.85% 3,620 1.63% -29,640 -13.33% 222,376 Ocean 109,393 43.12% 139,480 54.98% 4,839 1.91% -30,087 -11.86% 253,712 Passaic 100,598 61.36% 59,556 36.33% 3,798 2.32% 41,042 25.03% 163,952 Salem 16,132 52.97% 12,869 42.26% 1,452 4.77% 3,263 10.71% 30,453 Somerset 66,939 47.13% 71,392 50.27% 3,691 2.60% -4,453 -3.14% 142,022 Sussex 27,178 37.77% 41,660 57.89% 3,124 4.34% -14,482 -20.12% 71,962 Union 116,201 61.53% 69,069 36.57% 3,578 1.89% 47,132 24.96% 188,848 Warren 18,019 38.91% 27,258 58.87% 1,027 2.22% -9,239 -19.96% 46,304Totals1,951,21856.03%1,461,02541.95%70,2022.02%490,19314.08%3,482,445

2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey

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