The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

, this is the last time that Virginia has voted for a Republican candidate in a presidential election (or in any federal statewide election). This is also the last time Virginia and West Virginia have voted for the same presidential candidate.

This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president.

Kerry narrowly won Northern Virginia, which would transform into a Democratic stronghold in 2008. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries 2004 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportAssociated PressCNNCook Political ReportNewsweekNew York TimesRasmussen ReportsResearch 2000Washington PostWashington TimesZogby InternationalWashington Dispatch

Polling Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.

Fundraising Bush raised $8,594,386. Kerry raised $6,125,128.

Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.

Analysis For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, reliably Democratic at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s, Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growing Richmond- and Washington, D.C.-area suburbs of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Fairfax Counties. This trend would start to change in the 2000s; although Bush was widely expected to carry Virginia and did prevail in the state by over 8 points, this election set the stage for the state to become more competitive on the presidential level in the future.

Though the state was uncontested by both campaigns, John Kerry became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold and the most populous county in the state. He was also the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to carry the independent city of Danville and Albermarle County. However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly in Southwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carry Russell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10 points in Washington, Scott, Wise, Lee, and Smyth Counties. These countervailing trends would continue in subsequent elections, with Democrats expanding their support in Fairfax County while Republicans showed increasing support in Appalachian Virginia.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in VirginiaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (inc.) Dick Cheney (incumbent) 1,716,959 53.68% 13 Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.48% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.34% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0 Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0 Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0 Write-ins 2,976 0.09% 0 Totals 3,198,367 100.00% 13 Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2% —

By city/county