2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. While winning the state comfortably, Bush's margin of 12.44% was 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

As of 2024, this remains the last time that North Carolina has been decided by a double-digit margin in a presidential election.

Primaries 2004 North Carolina Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign

Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportCook Political ReportResearch 2000Zogby InternationalWashington PostWashington DispatchWashington TimesThe New York TimesCNNNewsweekAssociated PressRasmussen Reports

Polling Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3-poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.

Fundraising Bush raised $4,465,160. Kerry raised $2,049,794.

Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2024. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2024, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward.

, this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016 This is also the last presidential race in where any candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in North CarolinaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent) 1,961,166 56.02% 15 Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,849 43.58% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,731 0.34% 0 Others N/A N/A 2,261 0.06% 0 Totals 3,501,007 100% 15 Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 55.4%

By county CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Alamance33,30261.47%20,68638.18%1870.35%12,61623.29%54,175Alexander10,92870.05%4,61829.60%540.34%6,31040.45%15,600Alleghany2,88359.73%1,92239.82%220.45%96119.91%4,827Anson3,79641.15%5,41358.68%160.17%−1,617−17.53%9,225Ashe7,29261.68%4,47737.87%540.46%2,81523.81%11,823Avery5,67875.47%1,80523.99%410.55%3,87351.48%7,524Beaufort12,43263.68%7,02535.99%650.34%5,40727.69%19,522Bertie3,05738.06%4,93861.48%370.46%−1,881−23.42%8,032Bladen6,17450.14%6,10949.61%300.24%650.53%12,313Brunswick22,92560.37%14,90339.24%1490.39%8,02221.13%37,977Buncombe52,49149.99%51,86849.39%6540.63%6230.60%105,013Burke18,92261.51%11,72838.12%1120.37%7,19423.39%30,762Cabarrus40,78067.05%19,80332.56%2410.40%20,97734.49%60,824Caldwell21,18667.58%9,99931.90%1630.52%11,18735.68%31,348Camden2,48064.75%1,33934.96%110.29%1,14129.79%3,830Carteret17,71669.27%7,73230.23%1270.50%9,98439.04%25,575Caswell4,86851.58%4,53948.10%300.32%3293.48%9,437Catawba39,60267.48%18,85832.13%2280.39%20,74435.35%58,688Chatham12,89249.73%12,89749.75%1330.51%−5−0.02%25,922Cherokee7,51767.12%3,63532.46%470.42%3,88234.66%11,199Chowan2,96755.09%2,40644.67%130.24%56110.42%5,386Clay3,20965.95%1,62833.46%290.59%1,58132.49%4,866Cleveland22,75061.36%14,21538.34%1140.31%8,53523.02%37,079Columbus10,77350.84%10,34348.81%750.36%4302.03%21,191Craven23,57562.44%14,01937.13%1620.43%9,55625.31%37,756Cumberland49,13951.60%45,78848.08%2990.31%3,3513.52%95,226Currituck6,01366.99%2,90932.41%540.60%3,10434.58%8,976Dare9,34560.10%6,13639.46%670.43%3,20920.64%15,548Davidson42,07570.72%17,19128.89%2300.39%24,88441.81%59,496Davie12,37274.17%4,23325.38%750.45%8,13948.79%16,680Duplin9,61157.96%6,92341.75%490.30%2,68816.21%16,583Durham34,61431.57%74,52467.96%5130.47%−39,910−36.39%109,651Edgecombe8,16338.73%12,87761.09%390.19%−4,714−22.36%21,079Forsyth75,29454.12%63,34045.53%4910.35%11,9548.59%139,125Franklin11,54055.17%9,28644.39%920.44%2,25410.78%20,918Gaston43,25267.84%20,25431.77%2490.39%22,99836.07%63,755Gates1,92447.47%2,12152.33%80.20%−197−4.86%4,053Graham2,69367.54%1,27231.90%220.56%1,42135.64%3,987Granville9,49151.02%9,05748.69%530.28%4342.33%18,601Greene3,80058.71%2,66541.18%70.11%1,13517.53%6,472Guilford98,25449.30%100,04250.19%1,0180.51%−1,788−0.89%199,314Halifax8,08841.17%11,52858.68%310.16%−3,440−17.51%19,647Harnett20,92264.24%11,56335.50%860.26%9,35928.74%32,571Haywood14,54556.09%11,23743.33%1500.58%3,30812.76%25,932Henderson28,02564.82%15,00334.70%2060.48%13,02230.12%43,234Hertford2,94236.18%5,14163.22%490.61%−2,199−27.04%8,132Hoke5,25747.41%5,79452.25%370.33%−267−4.84%11,088Hyde1,23553.86%1,04845.70%100.43%1878.16%2,293Iredell38,67567.88%18,06531.71%2330.41%20,61036.17%56,973Jackson7,35151.86%6,73747.53%860.61%6144.33%14,174Johnston36,90367.89%17,26631.76%1880.35%19,63736.13%54,357Jones2,60757.77%1,89341.95%130.29%71415.82%4,513Lee11,83460.55%7,65739.18%520.27%4,17721.37%19,543Lenoir12,93955.82%10,20744.04%330.14%2,73211.78%23,179Lincoln20,05267.79%9,43431.89%930.32%10,61835.90%29,579Macon9,44862.89%5,48936.53%870.58%3,95926.36%15,024Madison5,17554.69%4,23444.74%540.57%9419.95%9,463Martin5,33451.03%5,10248.81%160.15%2322.22%10,452McDowell10,59066.18%5,33033.31%820.51%5,26032.87%16,002Mecklenburg155,08448.00%166,82851.63%1,1900.37%−11,744−3.63%323,102Mitchell5,68672.92%2,08026.67%320.41%3,60646.25%7,798Montgomery5,74556.99%4,31342.79%220.22%1,43214.20%10,080Moore24,71464.39%13,55535.32%1130.30%11,15929.07%38,382Nash21,90258.14%15,69341.66%780.21%9,77916.48%37,673New Hanover45,35155.82%35,57243.78%3240.40%12,61612.04%81,247Northampton3,17636.21%5,58463.67%100.11%−2,408−27.46%8,770Onslow25,89069.45%11,25030.18%1370.37%14,64039.27%37,277Orange20,77132.38%42,91066.89%4720.74%−22,139−34.51%64,153Pamlico3,67960.93%2,33538.67%240.40%1,34422.26%6,038Pasquotank6,60948.42%6,98451.17%550.41%−375−2.75%13,648Pender10,03758.75%6,99940.97%490.28%3,03817.78%17,085Perquimans2,96559.80%1,97139.75%220.44%99420.05%4,958Person8,97358.98%6,19840.74%430.28%2,77518.24%15,214Pitt28,59053.30%24,92446.46%1290.24%3,6666.84%53,643Polk5,14056.98%3,78741.98%941.05%1,35315.00%9,021Randolph37,77174.19%12,96625.47%1730.34%24,80548.72%50,910Richmond7,70947.75%8,38351.92%530.33%−674−4.17%16,145Robeson15,90946.97%17,86852.75%940.28%−1,959−5.78%33,871Rockingham22,84061.09%14,43038.60%1180.32%8,41022.49%37,388Rowan34,91567.32%16,73532.27%2170.42%18,18035.05%51,867Rutherford16,34366.28%8,18433.19%1310.53%8,15933.09%24,658Sampson12,60056.53%9,64943.29%390.17%2,95113.24%22,288Scotland5,14144.52%6,38655.30%200.17%−1,245−10.78%11,547Stanly17,81469.71%7,65029.94%890.35%10,16439.77%25,553Stokes13,58369.96%5,76729.71%640.33%7,81640.25%19,414Surry17,58767.66%8,30431.95%1010.39%9,28335.71%25,992Swain2,59351.41%2,41947.96%320.64%1743.45%5,044Transylvania9,38660.21%6,09739.11%1050.68%3,28921.10%15,588Tyrrell85553.77%73145.97%40.25%1247.80%1,590Union42,82070.20%17,97429.47%2070.34%24,84640.73%61,001Vance6,88443.91%8,76255.89%310.20%−1,878−11.98%15,677Wake177,32450.83%169,90948.71%1,6110.46%7,4152.12%348,844Warren2,84035.38%5,17164.42%160.20%−2,331−29.04%8,027Washington2,48445.40%2,96954.27%180.33%−485−8.87%5,471Watauga12,65952.64%11,23246.70%1590.66%1,4275.94%24,050Wayne24,88362.14%15,07637.65%870.22%9,80724.49%40,046Wilkes19,19770.70%7,86228.95%950.35%11,33541.75%27,154Wilson16,26453.26%14,20646.52%650.21%2,0586.74%30,535Yadkin11,81677.16%3,45122.54%460.30%8,36554.62%15,313Yancey4,94052.38%4,43447.02%570.60%5065.36%9,431Totals1,961,16656.02%1,525,84943.58%13,9920.40%435,31712.44%3,501,007

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Bladen (largest municipality: Elizabethtown) Chowan (largest municipality: Edenton) Columbus (largest municipality: Whiteville) Cumberland (largest municipality: Fayetteville) Granville (largest municipality: Oxford) Martin (largest municipality: Williamston) Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Guilford (largest municipality: Greensboro) Mecklenburg (largest municipality: Charlotte)

By congressional district Bush won nine of 13 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats. District Bush Kerry Representative 42% 57%G. K. Butterfield 54% 46%Bob Etheridge 68% 32%Walter B. Jones 44% 55%David Price66%33%Richard BurrVirginia Foxx 69% 30%Howard Coble 56% 44%Mike McIntyre 54% 45%Robin Hayes 63% 36%Sue Wilkins Myrick67%33%Cass BallengerPatrick McHenry 57% 43%Charles H. Taylor 37% 63%Mel Watt 47% 52%Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney: Joseph W. Powell Ann Sullivan William B. Carraway Sandra Carter William H. Trotter Thomas D. Luckadoo Judy Keener Marcia M. Spiegel Dewitt Rhoades Davey G. Williamson