2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota

The 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Minnesota was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a major swing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically a blue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972. However, in 2000 Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.4%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as a faithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot for John Edwards (written as John Ewards), his running mate. The identity and reason for the faithless elector's vote are not known, though fellow Minnesota electors suspected it was a mistake.

Caucuses 2004 Republican Party presidential primaries 2004 Minnesota Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign

Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportCook Political ReportResearch 2000Zogby InternationalWashington PostWashington DispatchWashington TimesThe New York TimesCNNNewsweekAssociated PressRasmussen Reports

Polling Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3. The last poll average by Real Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%. Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.

Fundraising Bush raised $2,507,181. Kerry raised $2,635,150.

Advertising and visits Both tickets visited the state 7 times. A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.

Analysis

Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as a blue state, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee in Richard Nixon's 1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats during Ronald Reagan's two landslides in 1980 and 1984. However, in 2000 and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins.

In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had either Bush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts: Minnesota's 4th congressional district, Minnesota's 5th congressional district, and Minnesota's 8th congressional district.

, this is the last election in which Washington County, Olmsted County, and Dakota County voted for the Republican candidate, and the last in which Ramsey County was not the most Democratic county in the state. This was the first time since 1928 that a Republican had won a majority in Anoka County. Bush became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Nicollet County.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in MinnesotaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic (DFL) John Kerry 1,445,014 51.09% 9 Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 1,346,695 47.61% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 18,683 0.66% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 4,639 0.16% 0 Green David Cobb 4,408 0.16% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka 3,074 0.11% 0 Independent Write Ins 2,530 0.09% 0 Christian Freedom Thomas Harens 2,387 0.08% 0 Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 539 0.02% 0 Socialist Workers Roger Calero 416 0.01% 0 Socialist Party USA (Write-in) Walt Brown (Write-in) 2 0.00% 0 Democratic (DFL) John Edwards 0 0.00% 1 Totals 2,828,387 100.00% 10 Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population) 74.2%

By county County John KerryDFL George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Aitkin 4,539 48.02% 4,768 50.44% 145 1.53% -229 -2.42% 9,452 Anoka 80,226 46.09% 91,853 52.77% 1,987 1.14% -11,627 -6.68% 174,066 Becker 6,756 40.21% 9,795 58.30% 250 1.49% -3,039 -18.09% 16,801 Beltrami 10,592 50.13% 10,237 48.45% 302 1.43% 355 1.68% 21,131 Benton 8,059 43.84% 10,043 54.63% 282 1.43% -1,984 -10.79% 18,384 Big Stone 1,536 50.08% 1,483 48.35% 48 1.57% 53 1.73% 3,067 Blue Earth 16,865 50.92% 15,737 47.52% 517 1.56% 1,128 3.40% 33,119 Brown 5,158 37.44% 8,395 60.93% 225 1.63% -3,237 -23.49% 13,778 Carlton 11,462 62.52% 6,642 36.23% 230 1.25% 4,820 26.29% 18,334 Carver 16,456 36.24% 28,510 62.78% 445 0.98% -12,054 -26.54% 45,411 Cass 6,835 42.96% 8,875 55.78% 200 1.26% -2,040 -12.82% 15,910 Chippewa 3,424 51.83% 3,089 46.76% 93 1.41% 335 5.07% 6,606 Chisago 12,219 43.24% 15,705 55.57% 336 1.19% -3,486 -12.33% 28,260 Clay 12,989 46.83% 14,365 51.79% 383 1.38% -1,376 -4.96% 27,737 Clearwater 1,871 42.90% 2,438 55.90% 52 1.19% -567 -13.00% 4,361 Cook 1,733 52.47% 1,489 45.08% 81 2.45% 244 7.39% 3,303 Cottonwood 2,726 42.80% 3,557 55.85% 86 1.36% -831 -13.05% 6,369 Crow Wing 14,005 41.75% 19,106 56.96% 434 1.29% -5,101 -15.21% 33,545 Dakota 104,635 48.48% 108,959 50.48% 2,252 1.04% -4,324 -2.00% 215,846 Dodge 4,117 41.72% 5,593 56.68% 158 1.60% -1,476 -14.96% 9,868 Douglas 8,219 40.47% 11,793 58.07% 297 1.46% -3,574 -17.60% 20,309 Faribault 3,767 43.39% 4,794 55.22% 120 1.38% -1,027 -11.83% 8,681 Fillmore 5,825 49.79% 5,694 48.67% 179 1.53% 131 1.12% 11,698 Freeborn 9,733 55.09% 7,681 43.48% 252 1.43% 2,052 11.61% 17,666 Goodhue 12,103 47.26% 13,134 51.29% 371 1.45% -1,031 -4.03% 25,608 Grant 1,856 48.60% 1,893 49.57% 70 1.83% -37 -0.97% 3,819 Hennepin 383,841 59.33% 255,133 39.43% 8,007 1.24% 128,708 19.90% 646,981 Houston 5,276 47.61% 5,631 50.81% 175 1.58% -355 -3.20% 11,082 Hubbard 4,741 41.81% 6,444 56.83% 155 1.37% -1,703 -15.02% 11,340 Isanti 7,883 40.82% 11,190 57.94% 240 1.24% -3,307 -17.12% 19,313 Itasca 13,290 54.54% 10,705 43.93% 372 1.52% 2,585 10.61% 24,367 Jackson 2,652 45.89% 3,024 52.33% 103 1.78% -372 -6.44% 5,779 Kanabec 3,592 43.55% 4,527 54.89% 129 1.56% -935 -11.34% 8,248 Kandiyohi 9,337 43.74% 11,704 54.82% 308 1.45% -2,367 -11.08% 21,349 Kittson 1,333 49.70% 1,307 48.73% 42 1.57% 26 0.97% 2,682 Koochiching 3,662 50.10% 3,539 48.42% 108 1.48% 123 1.68% 7,309 Lac qui Parle 2,390 52.63% 2,093 46.09% 58 1.27% 297 6.54% 4,541 Lake 4,212 59.57% 2,769 39.16% 90 1.27% 1,433 20.41% 7,071 Lake of the Woods 921 38.38% 1,428 59.50% 51 2.13% -507 -21.12% 2,400 Le Sueur 6,466 44.83% 7,746 53.70% 212 1.46% -1,280 -8.87% 14,424 Lincoln 1,558 46.62% 1,736 51.94% 48 1.44% -178 -5.32% 3,342 Lyon 5,292 41.76% 7,203 56.84% 178 1.40% -1,911 -15.08% 12,673 McLeod 6,712 36.45% 11,407 61.95% 293 1.60% -4,695 -25.50% 18,412 Mahnomen 1,339 53.39% 1,132 45.14% 37 1.48% 207 8.25% 2,508 Marshall 2,308 41.50% 3,187 57.30% 67 1.21% -879 -15.80% 5,562 Martin 4,590 41.55% 6,311 57.13% 146 1.33% -1,721 -15.58% 11,047 Meeker 5,292 42.91% 6,854 55.57% 188 1.52% -1,562 -12.66% 12,334 Mille Lacs 5,677 43.45% 7,194 55.06% 194 1.48% -1,517 -11.61% 13,065 Morrison 6,794 40.54% 9,698 57.87% 266 1.59% -2,904 -17.33% 16,758 Mower 12,334 60.99% 7,591 37.54% 297 1.47% 4,743 23.45% 20,222 Murray 2,218 44.38% 2,719 54.40% 61 1.22% -501 -10.02% 4,998 Nicollet 8,797 49.59% 8,689 48.98% 255 1.43% 108 0.61% 17,741 Nobles 3,898 42.35% 5,159 56.05% 147 1.60% -1,261 -13.70% 9,204 Norman 1,954 51.29% 1,794 47.09% 62 1.62% 160 4.20% 3,810 Olmsted 33,285 46.50% 37,371 52.21% 919 1.29% -4,086 -5.71% 71,575 Otter Tail 12,038 37.41% 19,734 61.33% 406 1.26% -7,696 -23.92% 32,178 Pennington 3,117 44.42% 3,767 53.68% 133 1.89% -650 -9.26% 7,017 Pine 7,228 49.79% 7,033 48.44% 257 1.78% 195 1.35% 14,518 Pipestone 1,900 37.76% 3,066 60.93% 66 1.31% -1,166 -23.17% 5,032 Polk 6,729 42.95% 8,724 55.68% 215 1.37% -1,995 -12.73% 15,668 Pope 3,301 49.27% 3,303 49.30% 96 1.43% -2 -0.03% 6,700 Ramsey 171,846 63.04% 97,096 35.62% 3,635 1.34% 74,750 27.42% 272,577 Red Lake 963 44.24% 1,164 53.47% 50 2.29% -201 -9.23% 2,177 Redwood 3,104 38.14% 4,898 60.18% 137 1.68% -1,794 -22.04% 8,139 Renville 3,787 45.36% 4,430 53.06% 132 1.58% -643 -7.70% 8,349 Rice 16,425 53.42% 13,881 45.15% 439 1.43% 2,544 8.27% 30,745 Rock 2,000 38.53% 3,111 59.93% 80 1.54% -1,111 -21.40% 5,191 Roseau 2,442 30.87% 5,355 67.69% 114 1.44% -2,913 -36.82% 7,911 St. Louis 77,958 65.20% 40,112 33.55% 1,495 1.25% 37,846 31.65% 119,565 Scott 23,958 39.51% 36,055 59.46% 626 1.03% -12,097 -19.95% 60,639 Sherburne 15,816 38.15% 25,182 60.75% 456 1.10% -9,366 -22.60% 41,454 Sibley 3,109 39.11% 4,669 58.74% 171 2.15% -1,560 -19.63% 7,949 Stearns 32,659 43.21% 41,726 55.21% 1,192 1.58% -9,067 -12.00% 75,577 Steele 7,994 42.76% 10,389 55.57% 312 1.67% -2,395 -12.81% 18,695 Stevens 2,821 47.42% 3,030 50.93% 98 1.64% -209 -3.51% 5,949 Swift 3,165 55.19% 2,481 43.26% 89 1.55% 684 11.93% 5,735 Todd 5,034 41.21% 6,945 56.86% 235 1.92% -1,911 -15.65% 12,214 Traverse 1,026 47.92% 1,076 50.26% 39 1.82% -50 -2.34% 2,141 Wabasha 5,548 46.88% 6,120 51.71% 167 1.41% -572 -4.83% 11,835 Wadena 2,791 39.35% 4,214 59.41% 88 1.24% -1,423 -20.06% 7,093 Waseca 4,179 42.64% 5,457 55.68% 164 1.67% -1,278 -13.04% 9,800 Washington 61,395 47.80% 65,751 51.19% 1,303 1.01% -4,356 -3.39% 128,449 Watonwan 2,514 45.03% 2,970 53.20% 99 1.77% -456 -8.17% 5,583 Wilkin 1,169 33.14% 2,303 65.30% 55 1.56% -1,134 -32.16% 3,527 Winona 14,231 51.90% 12,686 46.26% 505 1.84% 1,545 5.64% 27,422 Wright 22,618 37.99% 36,176 60.77% 740 1.24% -13,558 -22.78% 59,534 Yellow Medicine 2,799 48.61% 2,878 49.98% 81 1.40% -79 -1.37% 5,758Totals1,445,01451.09%1,346,69547.61%36,6781.40%98,3193.48%2,828,387

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin) Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Beltrami (largest municipality: Bemidji) Blue Earth (largest municipality: Mankato) Chippewa (largest municipality: Montevideo) Cook (largest municipality: Grand Marais) Kittson (Largest city: Hallock) Koochiching (Largest city: International Falls) Mahnomen (largest municipality: Mahnomen) Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato) Norman (largest municipality: Ada)

By congressional district Despite losing the state, Bush won five of eight congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. District Bush Kerry Representative 51% 47%Gil Gutknecht 54% 45%John Kline 51% 48%Jim Ramstad 37% 62%Betty McCollum 28% 71%Martin Olav Sabo 57% 42%Mark Kennedy 55% 43%Collin Peterson 46% 53%Jim Oberstar

Electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.